Chapecoense
vs
Atletico Paranaense
Serie A prediction
Our model says: Chapecoense 1–2 Atletico Paranaense
The model makes it 30% Chapecoense, 28% draw, 42% Atletico Paranaense — fair odds of 3.33, 3.57 and 2.38. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Chapecoense 1.31, Atletico Paranaense 1.75.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Chapecoense are bottom on 18 points from 27 games; Atletico Paranaense are 3rd on 49 points from 28 games — Serie A.
- Chapecoense have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Atletico Mineiro.
- Atletico Paranaense have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Bahia.
- Last 6 meetings: Atletico Paranaense 2 wins to 0, 4 draws; the most recent, 12 April 2026, ended Atletico Paranaense 2–0 Chapecoense.
All Brazilian Serie A predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Chapecoense vs Atletico Paranaense
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Atletico Paranaense at 42% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Chapecoense vs Atletico Paranaense
Chapecoense
- D1-1away to Atletico Mineiro19 September 2026
- L1-2Internacional12 September 2026
- W2-1away to Corinthians6 September 2026
- L1-3away to Gremio30 August 2026
- W1-0Sao Paulo23 August 2026
Atletico Paranaense
- W2-1Bahia20 September 2026
- D3-3away to Coritiba12 September 2026
- L1-3away to Cruzeiro6 September 2026
- D3-3Fluminense30 August 2026
- W3-2away to Botafogo24 August 2026
What these results say
- Chapecoense scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Chapecoense conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Chapecoense.
- Atletico Paranaense scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Atletico Paranaense conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Atletico Paranaense had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Chapecoense | 27 | 3 | 9 | 15 | 29 | 53 | -24 | 18 |
| 3 | Atletico Paranaense | 28 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 43 | 32 | +11 | 49 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Chapecoense vs Atletico Paranaense
- 12 April 2026Atletico Paranaense 2–0 ChapecoenseSerie A
- 17 September 2025Chapecoense 2–3 Atletico ParanaenseSerie B
- 9 May 2025Atletico Paranaense 1–1 ChapecoenseSerie B
- 13 October 2021Chapecoense 1–1 Atletico ParanaenseSerie A
- 27 June 2021Atletico Paranaense 2–2 ChapecoenseSerie A
- 29 September 2019Atletico Paranaense 1–1 ChapecoenseSerie A
Leading scorers: Chapecoense and Atletico Paranaense
Chapecoense
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 29 league goals as a side.
Atletico Paranaense
- K. Viveros18 goals3 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Chapecoense carry a model rating of 6.51 against 6.83 for Atletico Paranaense. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.31 goals for Chapecoense and 1.75 for Atletico Paranaense. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Chapecoense rate 0.77 in attack and 1.52 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Atletico Paranaense rate 1.03 and 1.08.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Chapecoense a 0% chance of the title and Atletico Paranaense 0.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Atletico Paranaense the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Chapecoense against 1.75 for Atletico Paranaense. Chapecoense's attack/defence rating is 0.77/1.52 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.03/1.08 for Atletico Paranaense.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Chapecoense at home · Atletico Paranaense away
League matches only, Serie A, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie A matches this season: Chapecoense 27, Atletico Paranaense 28.
Chapecoense score most often in the 76–90 minute window (10 goals); Atletico Paranaense have let in 10 there.
Atletico Paranaense score most often in the 0–15 minute window (11 goals); Chapecoense have let in 5 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Chapecoense
- at Botafogo18 Oct · Serie Awin 23%
- vs Fluminense25 Oct · Serie Awin 31%
- at RB Bragantino28 Oct · Serie Awin 23%
Atletico Paranaense
- vs Palmeiras18 Oct · Serie Awin 35%
- at Vitoria25 Oct · Serie Awin 39%
- at Gremio28 Oct · Serie Awin 36%
- vs Vasco da Gama4 Nov · Serie Awin 49%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.