Olympique Akbou
vs
ES Setif
Ligue 1 prediction
Our model says: Olympique Akbou 1–0 ES Setif
The model makes it 46% Olympique Akbou, 27% draw, 27% ES Setif — fair odds of 2.17, 3.70 and 3.70.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Olympique Akbou 1.61, ES Setif 1.08.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,958 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Olympique Akbou's rating is built from 38 Ligue 1 (Algeria) matches and ES Setif's from 38, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Olympique Akbou are 7th on 12 points from 8 games; ES Setif are 10th on 9 points from 8 games — Ligue 1.
- Olympique Akbou are unbeaten in their last 5 games (2 won), most recently a 0-0 draw at home to JS Kabylie.
- ES Setif have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to MB Rouisset.
- Last 4 meetings: ES Setif 2 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 11 April 2026, ended Olympique Akbou 1–0 ES Setif.
More Ligue 1 (Algeria) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Olympique Akbou vs ES Setif
Has the model earned this number?
Olympique Akbou at 46%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Olympique Akbou vs ES Setif
Olympique Akbou
Ligue 1
- D0-0JS Kabylie7 November 2026
- D0-0away to MC Oran30 October 2026
- W3-0CS Constantine23 October 2026
- W2-1Ben Aknoun16 October 2026
- D0-0away to JS Saoura8 October 2026
ES Setif
Ligue 1
- D1-1MB Rouisset7 November 2026
- W2-1away to ASO Chlef30 October 2026
- L1-2Témouchent24 October 2026
- D1-1JS Kabylie14 October 2026
- D0-0away to MC Oran8 October 2026
What these results say
- Olympique Akbou went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Olympique Akbou kept a clean sheet in 4 of these 5 matches.
- ES Setif failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- ES Setif scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- ES Setif conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Algeria Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Olympique Akbou | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 6 | +3 | 12 |
| 10 | ES Setif | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Olympique Akbou
Chance to finish in the top two · 5% today
ES Setif
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 7% today
From our Ligue 1 season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Olympique Akbou vs ES Setif
- 11 April 2026Olympique Akbou 1–0 ES SetifLigue 1
- 8 November 2025ES Setif 1–1 Olympique AkbouLigue 1
- 11 May 2025ES Setif 1–0 Olympique AkbouLigue 1
- 23 November 2024Olympique Akbou 0–1 ES SetifLigue 1
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Olympique Akbou a 1.7% chance of the title and ES Setif 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Olympique Akbou the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Olympique Akbou against 1.08 for ES Setif. Olympique Akbou's attack/defence rating is 0.55/1.5 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.6/1.8 for ES Setif.
How the model reaches 46% for Olympique Akbou to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Olympique Akbou to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Olympique Akbou's ratings change nothing and ES Setif's ratings add 2 points, which lands on the published 46%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Olympique Akbou's ratings44%±0
- ES Setif's ratings46%+2
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Olympique Akbou at home · ES Setif away
League matches only, Ligue 1, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 1 matches this season: Olympique Akbou 8, ES Setif 8.
Olympique Akbou score most often in the 46–60 minute window (7 goals); ES Setif have let in 0 there.
ES Setif score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Olympique Akbou have let in 2 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Olympique Akbou
- vs Témouchent1 Dec · Ligue 1win 53%
- at US Biskra26 Dec · Ligue 1win 47%
ES Setif
- at Khenchela30 Nov · Ligue 1win 36%
- vs USM Alger26 Dec · Ligue 1win 39%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.