OFK Beograd
vs
Novi Pazar
Super Liga prediction
Our model says: OFK Beograd 1–0 Novi Pazar
The model makes it 39% OFK Beograd, 28% draw, 33% Novi Pazar — fair odds of 2.56, 3.57 and 3.03.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: OFK Beograd 1.41, Novi Pazar 1.24.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,304 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. OFK Beograd's rating is built from 52 Serbian SuperLiga matches and Novi Pazar's from 52, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 700 matches.
Key facts
- OFK Beograd are 12th on 11 points from 15 games; Novi Pazar are 8th on 19 points from 15 games — Super Liga.
- OFK Beograd have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Radnik Surdulica.
- Novi Pazar have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win at home to Mladost Lucani.
- Last 6 meetings: Novi Pazar 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 1 August 2026, ended Novi Pazar 1–4 OFK Beograd.
More Serbian SuperLiga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: OFK Beograd vs Novi Pazar
Has the model earned this number?
OFK Beograd at 39%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into OFK Beograd vs Novi Pazar
OFK Beograd
Super Liga
- L1-2away to Radnik Surdulica8 November 2026
- L0-2Vojvodina1 November 2026
- L0-1FK Crvena Zvezda25 October 2026
- D1-1away to Macva17 October 2026
- D0-0away to Mladost Lucani12 October 2026
Novi Pazar
Super Liga
- W2-0Mladost Lucani8 November 2026
- L0-2away to Radnicki 19231 November 2026
- W2-0away to Radnicki NIS23 October 2026
- L1-2IMT Novi Beograd18 October 2026
- L0-1away to FK Partizan11 October 2026
What these results say
- OFK Beograd did not win any of these 5 matches.
- OFK Beograd conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for OFK Beograd had two goals or fewer.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Novi Pazar had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serbia Super Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | OFK Beograd | 15 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 15 | 27 | -12 | 11 |
| 8 | Novi Pazar | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 16 | -1 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
OFK Beograd
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 45% today
Novi Pazar
Chance to finish in the top six · 20% today
From our Super Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: OFK Beograd vs Novi Pazar
- 1 August 2026Novi Pazar 1–4 OFK BeogradSuper Liga
- 18 April 2026Novi Pazar 1–5 OFK BeogradSuper Liga
- 15 February 2026Novi Pazar 2–1 OFK BeogradSuper Liga
- 13 September 2025OFK Beograd 0–2 Novi PazarSuper Liga
- 25 May 2025OFK Beograd 2–3 Novi PazarSuper Liga
- 9 December 2024OFK Beograd 1–1 Novi PazarSuper Liga
Leading scorers: OFK Beograd and Novi Pazar
OFK Beograd
GoalsAssists
- Y. Silue70
Novi Pazar
GoalsAssists
- K. Dixon52
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Novi Pazar (8th, with OFK Beograd 12th), while our numbers lean to OFK Beograd. OFK Beograd rate 0.52 in attack and 1.93 in defence, Novi Pazar 0.50 and 1.70 (lower is better in defence), so OFK Beograd have been the better side in attack on recent expected goals, which the 8-point gap in the table does not yet show. Playing at home adds the rest.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives OFK Beograd the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.41 expected goals for OFK Beograd against 1.24 for Novi Pazar. OFK Beograd's attack/defence rating is 0.52/1.93 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.5/1.7 for Novi Pazar.
How the model reaches 39% for OFK Beograd to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for OFK Beograd to win. Then home advantage adds 5 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, OFK Beograd's ratings take away 1 point and Novi Pazar's ratings take away 1 point, which lands on the published 39%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage42%+5
- Both sides at this match's level41%−1
- OFK Beograd's ratings40%−1
- Novi Pazar's ratings39%−1
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
OFK Beograd at home · Novi Pazar away
League matches only, Super Liga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Super Liga matches this season: OFK Beograd 15, Novi Pazar 15.
OFK Beograd score most often in the 61–75 minute window (4 goals); Novi Pazar have let in 3 there.
Novi Pazar score most often in the 31–45 minute window (4 goals); OFK Beograd have let in 6 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
OFK Beograd
- at Železničar Pančevo28 Nov · Super Ligawin 17%
- vs Cukaricki6 Dec · Super Ligawin 37%
- at Zemun6 Feb · Super Ligawin 46%
- vs FK Partizan13 Feb · Super Ligawin 35%
- at IMT Novi Beograd20 Feb · Super Ligawin 24%
Novi Pazar
- vs FK Crvena Zvezda28 Nov · Super Ligawin 15%
- at Vojvodina6 Dec · Super Ligawin 16%
- vs Radnik Surdulica6 Feb · Super Ligawin 38%
- at Macva13 Feb · Super Ligawin 36%
- at Železničar Pančevo20 Feb · Super Ligawin 19%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.