Mladost Lucani
vs
Železničar Pančevo
Super Liga prediction
Our model says: Mladost Lucani 0–1 Železničar Pančevo
The model makes it 21% Mladost Lucani, 27% draw, 52% Železničar Pančevo — fair odds of 4.76, 3.70 and 1.92.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1 (13%).
Expected goals: Mladost Lucani 0.85, Železničar Pančevo 1.64.
Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 45%, under 2.5: 55%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
One-sided: Železničar Pančevo are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Mladost Lucani's rating is built from 52 Serbian SuperLiga matches and Železničar Pančevo's from 51, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 700 matches.
Key facts
- Mladost Lucani are 9th on 18 points from 15 games; Železničar Pančevo are 3rd on 29 points from 14 games — Super Liga.
- Mladost Lucani have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Novi Pazar.
- Železničar Pančevo are unbeaten in their last 5 games (5 won), most recently a 3-1 win at home to Radnicki 1923.
- Last 6 meetings: Mladost Lucani 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 3 August 2026, ended Železničar Pančevo 0–0 Mladost Lucani.
More Serbian SuperLiga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Mladost Lucani vs Železničar Pančevo
Has the model earned this number?
Železničar Pančevo at 52%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Mladost Lucani vs Železničar Pančevo
Mladost Lucani
Super Liga
- L0-2away to Novi Pazar8 November 2026
- L0-1Radnik Surdulica2 November 2026
- D1-1Vojvodina24 October 2026
- L1-5away to FK Crvena Zvezda18 October 2026
- D0-0OFK Beograd12 October 2026
Železničar Pančevo
Super Liga
- W3-1Radnicki 19237 November 2026
- W2-1away to Radnicki 192328 October 2026
- W1-0away to IMT Novi Beograd23 October 2026
- W1-0FK Partizan18 October 2026
- W3-0away to Zemun11 October 2026
What these results say
- Mladost Lucani did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Mladost Lucani conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Mladost Lucani had two goals or fewer.
- Železničar Pančevo won every one of these 5 matches.
- Železničar Pančevo scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serbia Super Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Mladost Lucani | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 12 | 21 | -9 | 18 |
| 3 | Železničar Pančevo | 14 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 24 | 12 | +12 | 29 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Mladost Lucani
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 17% today
From our Super Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Mladost Lucani vs Železničar Pančevo
- 3 August 2026Železničar Pančevo 0–0 Mladost LucaniSuper Liga
- 15 March 2026Železničar Pančevo 5–0 Mladost LucaniSuper Liga
- 19 October 2025Mladost Lucani 2–1 Železničar PančevoSuper Liga
- 3 March 2025Mladost Lucani 1–1 Železničar PančevoSuper Liga
- 5 October 2024Železničar Pančevo 1–2 Mladost LucaniSuper Liga
- 2 December 2023Mladost Lucani 1–0 Železničar PančevoSuper Liga
Leading scorers: Mladost Lucani and Železničar Pančevo
Mladost Lucani
GoalsAssists
- Vasil Tasovski40
Železničar Pančevo
GoalsAssists
- D. Ankeye50
- K. Kwaku42
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Mladost Lucani a 0% chance of the title and Železničar Pančevo 0.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How the call on Mladost Lucani v Železničar Pančevo has moved
First published on 7 Nov at 22% / 28% / 50% (home / draw / away). After 2 updates it reads 21% / 27% / 52%: the biggest move is Železničar Pančevo's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Mladost Lucani win21%▼ −1
- Draw27%▼ −1
- Železničar Pančevo win52%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Železničar Pančevo the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.85 expected goals for Mladost Lucani against 1.64 for Železničar Pančevo. Mladost Lucani's attack/defence rating is 0.41/1.9 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.67/1.3 for Železničar Pančevo.
How the model reaches 52% for Železničar Pančevo to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Železničar Pančevo to win. Then home advantage takes away 5 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Mladost Lucani's ratings add 10 points and Železničar Pančevo's ratings add 12 points, which lands on the published 52%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage31%−5
- Both sides at this match's level30%−1
- Mladost Lucani's ratings40%+10
- Železničar Pančevo's ratings52%+12
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Mladost Lucani at home · Železničar Pančevo away
League matches only, Super Liga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Super Liga matches this season: Mladost Lucani 15, Železničar Pančevo 14.
Mladost Lucani score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Železničar Pančevo have let in 2 there.
Železničar Pančevo score most often in the 61–75 minute window (6 goals); Mladost Lucani have let in 3 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Mladost Lucani
- at Cukaricki28 Nov · Super Ligawin 21%
- vs Zemun6 Dec · Super Ligawin 49%
- at FK Partizan6 Feb · Super Ligawin 19%
- vs IMT Novi Beograd13 Feb · Super Ligawin 27%
- at Radnicki NIS20 Feb · Super Ligawin 31%
Železničar Pančevo
- vs OFK Beograd28 Nov · Super Ligawin 59%
- at FK Crvena Zvezda6 Dec · Super Ligawin 18%
- vs Vojvodina6 Feb · Super Ligawin 37%
- at Radnik Surdulica13 Feb · Super Ligawin 42%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.