Nafta
vs
Bravo
1. SNL prediction
Our model says: Nafta 2–1 Bravo
The model makes it 38% Nafta, 29% draw, 33% Bravo — fair odds of 2.63, 3.45 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Nafta 1.48, Bravo 1.31.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published
Key facts
- Nafta are 6th on 13 points from 10 games; Bravo are 3rd on 18 points from 10 games — 1. SNL.
- Nafta have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Koper.
- Bravo are unbeaten in 4, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Olimpija Ljubljana.
- Last 6 meetings: Bravo 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 26 July 2026, ended Bravo 0–3 Nafta.
All Slovenian PrvaLiga predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Nafta vs Bravo
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Nafta at 38% here. Across 3,018 settled matches (as of 4 October 2026), 2,372 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Nafta vs Bravo
Nafta
- L0-2away to Koper19 September 2026
- W2-1away to Brinje-Grosuplje11 September 2026
- W3-1Radomlje4 September 2026
- L2-3Maribor30 August 2026
- L0-1away to Olimpija Ljubljana21 August 2026
Bravo
- W2-1Olimpija Ljubljana20 September 2026
- W2-1Celje12 September 2026
- D0-0away to Aluminij5 September 2026
- W2-0Mura29 August 2026
- L1-3away to Maribor23 August 2026
What these results say
- Nafta conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Bravo scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
1. SNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Nafta | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 17 | 16 | +1 | 13 |
| 3 | Bravo | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 10 | +2 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Nafta vs Bravo
- 26 July 2026Bravo 0–3 Nafta1. SNL
- 12 March 2026Bravo 2–0 NaftaCup
- 2 May 2025Nafta 0–1 Bravo1. SNL
- 2 April 2025Nafta 2–2 BravoCup
- 8 March 2025Bravo 1–1 Nafta1. SNL
- 9 November 2024Nafta 0–1 Bravo1. SNL
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Nafta carry a model rating of 6.37 against 6.46 for Bravo. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.48 goals for Nafta and 1.31 for Bravo. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Nafta rate 0.64 in attack and 1.67 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Bravo rate 0.65 and 1.42.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Bravo, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Nafta a 0.9% chance of the title and Bravo 10.9%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,418 correct results out of 3,018 settled predictions (47%), with 294 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Nafta the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Nafta against 1.31 for Bravo. Nafta's attack/defence rating is 0.64/1.67 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.65/1.42 for Bravo.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Nafta at home · Bravo away
League matches only, 1. SNL, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 1. SNL matches this season: Nafta 10, Bravo 10.
Nafta score most often in the 46–60 minute window (8 goals); Bravo have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Nafta
- at Mura17 Oct · 1. SNLwin 39%
- vs Aluminij28 Oct · 1. SNLwin 43%
- at Celje31 Oct · 1. SNLwin 22%
- vs Olimpija Ljubljana7 Nov · 1. SNLwin 35%
- at Maribor21 Nov · 1. SNLwin 23%
Bravo
- vs Radomlje17 Oct · 1. SNLwin 54%
- at Brinje-Grosuplje28 Oct · 1. SNLwin 37%
- vs Koper31 Oct · 1. SNLwin 37%
- vs Maribor7 Nov · 1. SNLwin 36%
- at Mura21 Nov · 1. SNLwin 42%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.