Regular Season - 8 · 10 October 2026, 15:00 UTC

Obolon'-Brovar vs Kryvbas KR Premier League prediction

Obolon Arena, Kyiv

Our model says: Obolon'-Brovar 1–2 Kryvbas KR

The model makes it 29% Obolon'-Brovar, 27% draw, 44% Kryvbas KR — fair odds of 3.45, 3.70 and 2.27. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

Expected goals: Obolon'-Brovar 1.42, Kryvbas KR 2.02.

Both teams to score: 66%. Over 2.5 goals: 67%, under 2.5: 33%.

Model confidence: Medium.

Published · updated

Key facts

  • Obolon'-Brovar are 15th on 4 points from 7 games; Kryvbas KR are 14th on 5 points from 6 games — Premier League.
  • Obolon'-Brovar have not won in their last 5, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Chornomorets.
  • Kryvbas KR are without a win in 4, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Polessya.
  • Last 6 meetings: Kryvbas KR 4 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 7 March 2026, ended Obolon'-Brovar 0–0 Kryvbas KR.

Live win probability

From kick-off
Obolon'-Brovar29%3.45
Draw27%3.70
Kryvbas KR44%2.27

These update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.

Model insights: Obolon'-Brovar vs Kryvbas KR

66%
Both teams to score
67%
Over 2.5 goals
33%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Obolon'-Brovar win Draw Kryvbas KR win
  1. 1–110%
  2. 1–29%
  3. 2–27%
  4. 0–27%
  5. 2–17%
  6. 1–36%
  7. 0–16%

Scores read Obolon'-Brovar first. Each bar is the model's probability of that exact result, drawn against the likeliest one; the other scorelines it considered share the remaining 49%.

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Kryvbas KR at 44% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Form going into Obolon'-Brovar vs Kryvbas KR

Obolon'-Brovar

  • D1-1away to Chornomorets18 September 2026
  • L1-3away to LNZ Cherkasy12 September 2026
  • L0-5away to FC Kharkiv5 September 2026
  • D0-0away to Kolos Kovalivka28 August 2026
  • D0-0away to Kudrivka15 August 2026

Kryvbas KR

  • L0-1away to Polessya18 September 2026
  • D2-2Kolos Kovalivka5 September 2026
  • L0-1away to Chornomorets30 August 2026
  • D1-1Livyi Bereh15 August 2026
  • W3-1away to Zorya Luhansk9 August 2026

What these results say

  • Obolon'-Brovar did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • Kryvbas KR conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Kryvbas KR failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
15Obolon'-Brovar7043212-104
14Kryvbas KR6123710-35

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Head-to-head: Obolon'-Brovar vs Kryvbas KR

  • 7 March 2026Obolon'-Brovar 0–0 Kryvbas KRPremier League
  • 30 August 2025Kryvbas KR 2–1 Obolon'-BrovarPremier League
  • 17 May 2025Kryvbas KR 1–0 Obolon'-BrovarPremier League
  • 24 November 2024Obolon'-Brovar 0–1 Kryvbas KRPremier League
  • 9 March 2024Kryvbas KR 1–0 Obolon'-BrovarPremier League
  • 28 August 2023Obolon'-Brovar 0–0 Kryvbas KRPremier League

The two sides

Obolon'-Brovar carry a model rating of 6.06 against 6.41 for Kryvbas KR. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.

The model expects goals

Under the hood the model expects 1.42 goals for Obolon'-Brovar and 2.02 for Kryvbas KR. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.

Obolon'-Brovar rate 0.44 in attack and 2.15 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Kryvbas KR rate 0.78 and 1.99.

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Kryvbas KR the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Obolon'-Brovar against 2.02 for Kryvbas KR. Obolon'-Brovar's attack/defence rating is 0.44/2.15 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.78/1.99 for Kryvbas KR.

Season stats

Obolon'-BrovarKryvbas KR
7Matches6
0W 4D 3LRecord1W 2D 3L
2 0.3 a gameGoals scored7 1.2 a game
12 1.7 a gameGoals conceded10 1.7 a game
3 of 7Clean sheets0 of 6
5 of 7Failed to score2 of 6
–Penalties scored1 of 1
21 3.0 a gameYellow cards11 1.8 a game
1Red cards1
4-2-3-1 3×Usual shape4-1-4-1 3×

League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Premier League matches this season: Obolon'-Brovar 7, Kryvbas KR 6.

Obolon'-Brovar scored 000011
Kryvbas KR conceded 102132
Kryvbas KR scored 040130
Obolon'-Brovar conceded 513111

Kryvbas KR score most often in the 16–30 minute window (4 goals); Obolon'-Brovar have let in 1 there.

Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

Obolon'-Brovar

  • vs Veres Rivne17 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 32%
  • at Polessya24 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 11%
  • vs Shakhtar Donetsk31 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 13%
  • vs Livyi Bereh7 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 27%
  • at Dynamo Kyiv21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 12%

Kryvbas KR

Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.