Regular Season - 9 · 17 October 2026, 15:00 UTC

Obolon'-Brovar vs Veres Rivne Premier League prediction

Obolon Arena, Kyiv

Our model says: Obolon'-Brovar 0–1 Veres Rivne

The model makes it 32% Obolon'-Brovar, 31% draw, 37% Veres Rivne — fair odds of 3.13, 3.23 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

Expected goals: Obolon'-Brovar 1.10, Veres Rivne 1.27.

Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 42%, under 2.5: 58%.

Model confidence: Low.

Published

Key facts

  • Obolon'-Brovar are 15th on 4 points from 7 games; Veres Rivne are 11th on 6 points from 6 games — Premier League.
  • Obolon'-Brovar have not won in their last 5, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Chornomorets.
  • Veres Rivne are unbeaten in 4, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Karpaty.
  • Last 6 meetings: Veres Rivne 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 11 April 2026, ended Veres Rivne 2–0 Obolon'-Brovar.

Live win probability

From kick-off
Obolon'-Brovar32%3.13
Draw31%3.23
Veres Rivne37%2.70

These update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.

Model insights: Obolon'-Brovar vs Veres Rivne

49%
Both teams to score
42%
Over 2.5 goals
58%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Obolon'-Brovar win Draw Veres Rivne win
  1. 1–114%
  2. 0–111%
  3. 0–010%
  4. 1–010%
  5. 1–28%
  6. 0–28%
  7. 2–17%

Scores read Obolon'-Brovar first. Each bar is the model's probability of that exact result, drawn against the likeliest one; the other scorelines it considered share the remaining 32%.

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Veres Rivne at 37% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 2,313 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Form going into Obolon'-Brovar vs Veres Rivne

Obolon'-Brovar

  • D1-1away to Chornomorets18 September 2026
  • L1-3away to LNZ Cherkasy12 September 2026
  • L0-5away to FC Kharkiv5 September 2026
  • D0-0away to Kolos Kovalivka28 August 2026
  • D0-0away to Kudrivka15 August 2026

Veres Rivne

  • D1-1away to Karpaty20 September 2026
  • D1-1Zorya Luhansk6 September 2026
  • W1-0away to LNZ Cherkasy30 August 2026
  • D0-0away to Epitsentr Dunayivtsi14 August 2026
  • L1-2Dynamo Kyiv9 August 2026

What these results say

  • Obolon'-Brovar did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • Veres Rivne failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Veres Rivne scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Veres Rivne had two goals or fewer.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
15Obolon'-Brovar7043212-104
11Veres Rivne613245-16

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Head-to-head: Obolon'-Brovar vs Veres Rivne

  • 11 April 2026Veres Rivne 2–0 Obolon'-BrovarPremier League
  • 4 October 2025Obolon'-Brovar 1–1 Veres RivnePremier League
  • 19 July 2025Obolon'-Brovar 0–1 Veres RivneFriendlies Clubs
  • 3 May 2025Veres Rivne 0–2 Obolon'-BrovarPremier League
  • 4 November 2024Obolon'-Brovar 0–0 Veres RivnePremier League
  • 30 October 2024Veres Rivne 2–1 Obolon'-BrovarCup

The two sides

Obolon'-Brovar carry a model rating of 6.06 against 6.29 for Veres Rivne. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.

What the model expects

Under the hood the model expects 1.10 goals for Obolon'-Brovar and 1.27 for Veres Rivne. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.

Obolon'-Brovar rate 0.44 in attack and 2.15 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Veres Rivne rate 0.49 and 1.54.

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Veres Rivne the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Obolon'-Brovar against 1.27 for Veres Rivne. Obolon'-Brovar's attack/defence rating is 0.44/2.15 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.49/1.54 for Veres Rivne.

Season stats

Obolon'-BrovarVeres Rivne
7Matches6
0W 4D 3LRecord1W 3D 2L
2 0.3 a gameGoals scored4 0.7 a game
12 1.7 a gameGoals conceded5 0.8 a game
3 of 7Clean sheets2 of 6
5 of 7Failed to score2 of 6
–Penalties scored–
21 3.0 a gameYellow cards16 2.7 a game
1Red cards0
4-2-3-1 3×Usual shape4-4-2 3×

League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Premier League matches this season: Obolon'-Brovar 7, Veres Rivne 6.

Obolon'-Brovar scored 000011
Veres Rivne conceded 012002
Veres Rivne scored 010102
Obolon'-Brovar conceded 513111

Veres Rivne score most often in the 76–90 minute window (2 goals); Obolon'-Brovar have let in 1 there.

Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

Obolon'-Brovar

  • at Polessya24 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 11%
  • vs Shakhtar Donetsk31 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 13%
  • vs Livyi Bereh7 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 27%
  • at Dynamo Kyiv21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 12%

Veres Rivne

  • vs Kolos Kovalivka24 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 38%
  • vs Chornomorets31 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 40%
  • at Polessya7 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 16%

Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.