Kryvbas KR
vs
LNZ Cherkasy
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Kryvbas KR 2–1 LNZ Cherkasy
The model makes it 38% Kryvbas KR, 28% draw, 34% LNZ Cherkasy — fair odds of 2.63, 3.57 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Kryvbas KR 1.52, LNZ Cherkasy 1.37.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published
Key facts
- Kryvbas KR are 14th on 5 points from 6 games; LNZ Cherkasy are 7th on 8 points from 7 games — Premier League.
- Kryvbas KR are without a win in 4, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Polessya.
- LNZ Cherkasy have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to Shakhtar Donetsk.
- Last 6 meetings: Kryvbas KR 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 5 April 2026, ended Kryvbas KR 0–3 LNZ Cherkasy.
All Ukrainian Premier League predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Kryvbas KR vs LNZ Cherkasy
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Kryvbas KR at 38% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 2,313 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Kryvbas KR vs LNZ Cherkasy
Kryvbas KR
- L0-1away to Polessya18 September 2026
- D2-2Kolos Kovalivka5 September 2026
- L0-1away to Chornomorets30 August 2026
- D1-1Livyi Bereh15 August 2026
- W3-1away to Zorya Luhansk9 August 2026
LNZ Cherkasy
- L0-3away to Shakhtar Donetsk20 September 2026
- W3-1Obolon'-Brovar12 September 2026
- D0-0away to Dynamo Kyiv6 September 2026
- L0-1Veres Rivne30 August 2026
- W2-0Chornomorets16 August 2026
What these results say
- Kryvbas KR conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Kryvbas KR failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Kryvbas KR | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 5 |
| 7 | LNZ Cherkasy | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Kryvbas KR vs LNZ Cherkasy
- 5 April 2026Kryvbas KR 0–3 LNZ CherkasyPremier League
- 28 September 2025LNZ Cherkasy 0–0 Kryvbas KRPremier League
- 26 April 2025LNZ Cherkasy 0–0 Kryvbas KRPremier League
- 26 October 2024Kryvbas KR 3–1 LNZ CherkasyPremier League
- 23 February 2024LNZ Cherkasy 0–3 Kryvbas KRPremier League
- 13 August 2023Kryvbas KR 2–0 LNZ CherkasyPremier League
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Kryvbas KR carry a model rating of 6.41 against 6.5 for LNZ Cherkasy. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.52 goals for Kryvbas KR and 1.37 for LNZ Cherkasy. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Kryvbas KR rate 0.78 in attack and 1.99 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; LNZ Cherkasy rate 0.57 and 1.20.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour LNZ Cherkasy, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Kryvbas KR the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Kryvbas KR against 1.37 for LNZ Cherkasy. Kryvbas KR's attack/defence rating is 0.78/1.99 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.57/1.2 for LNZ Cherkasy.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Kryvbas KR at home · LNZ Cherkasy away
League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Kryvbas KR 6, LNZ Cherkasy 7.
Kryvbas KR score most often in the 16–30 minute window (4 goals); LNZ Cherkasy have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Kryvbas KR
- at Bukovyna24 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 32%
- vs Dynamo Kyiv31 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 33%
- at Epitsentr Dunayivtsi7 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 33%
LNZ Cherkasy
- at Livyi Bereh24 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 29%
- vs FC Kharkiv31 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 32%
- at Zorya Luhansk7 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 33%
- vs Polessya21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 31%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.