Livyi Bereh
vs
Zorya Luhansk
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Livyi Bereh 1–0 Zorya Luhansk
The model makes it 42% Livyi Bereh, 31% draw, 27% Zorya Luhansk — fair odds of 2.38, 3.23 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (14%).
Expected goals: Livyi Bereh 1.34, Zorya Luhansk 0.87.
Both teams to score: 44%. Over 2.5 goals: 38%, under 2.5: 62%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Livyi Bereh are 9th on 7 points from 6 games; Zorya Luhansk are 8th on 8 points from 7 games — Premier League.
- Livyi Bereh have won 1 of their last 5, most recently a 2-0 win away to Epitsentr Dunayivtsi.
- Zorya Luhansk are without a win in 4, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to Dynamo Kyiv.
- Last 2 meetings: Zorya Luhansk 2 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 25 April 2025, ended Zorya Luhansk 2–1 Livyi Bereh.
All Ukrainian Premier League predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Livyi Bereh vs Zorya Luhansk
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Livyi Bereh at 42% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Livyi Bereh vs Zorya Luhansk
Livyi Bereh
- W2-0away to Epitsentr Dunayivtsi19 September 2026
- L0-1away to Polessya13 September 2026
- D0-0away to Chornomorets4 September 2026
- D1-1Karpaty29 August 2026
- D1-1away to Kryvbas KR15 August 2026
Zorya Luhansk
- L0-2Dynamo Kyiv19 September 2026
- D1-1away to Bukovyna13 September 2026
- D1-1away to Veres Rivne6 September 2026
- L0-3FC Kharkiv31 August 2026
- W2-1away to Polessya17 August 2026
What these results say
- Every one of these 5 matches for Livyi Bereh had two goals or fewer.
- Livyi Bereh failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Zorya Luhansk conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Zorya Luhansk failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Livyi Bereh | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 7 |
| 8 | Zorya Luhansk | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Livyi Bereh vs Zorya Luhansk
- 25 April 2025Zorya Luhansk 2–1 Livyi BerehPremier League
- 27 October 2024Livyi Bereh 0–2 Zorya LuhanskPremier League
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Livyi Bereh carry a model rating of 6.49 against 6.38 for Zorya Luhansk. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.34 goals for Livyi Bereh and 0.87 for Zorya Luhansk. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Livyi Bereh rate 0.48 in attack and 1.10 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Zorya Luhansk rate 0.66 and 1.71.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Zorya Luhansk, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Livyi Bereh the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Livyi Bereh against 0.87 for Zorya Luhansk. Livyi Bereh's attack/defence rating is 0.48/1.1 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.66/1.71 for Zorya Luhansk.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Livyi Bereh at home · Zorya Luhansk away
League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Livyi Bereh 6, Zorya Luhansk 7.
Livyi Bereh score most often in the 61–75 minute window (2 goals); Zorya Luhansk have let in 3 there.
Zorya Luhansk score most often in the 61–75 minute window (2 goals); Livyi Bereh have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Livyi Bereh
- at FC Kharkiv17 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 21%
- vs LNZ Cherkasy24 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 36%
- vs Bukovyna31 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 41%
- at Obolon'-Brovar7 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 41%
- vs Shakhtar Donetsk21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 24%
Zorya Luhansk
- vs Chornomorets17 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 46%
- at Shakhtar Donetsk24 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 13%
- vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi31 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 44%
- vs LNZ Cherkasy7 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 37%
- at Karpaty21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 21%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.