Rudes
vs
HNK Rijeka
HNL prediction
Our model says: Rudes 1–2 HNK Rijeka
The model makes it 26% Rudes, 27% draw, 47% HNK Rijeka — fair odds of 3.85, 3.70 and 2.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Rudes 1.07, HNK Rijeka 1.88.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- Rudes are bottom on 4 points from 8 games; HNK Rijeka are 5th on 14 points from 7 games — HNL.
- Rudes are without a win in 4, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to NK Slaven Belupo.
- HNK Rijeka are unbeaten in their last 5 (3 won), most recently a 3-0 win at home to HNK Hajduk Split.
- Last 6 meetings: HNK Rijeka 6 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 2 August 2026, ended HNK Rijeka 2–1 Rudes.
All Croatian HNL predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Rudes vs HNK Rijeka
Has the model earned this number?
It puts HNK Rijeka at 47% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Rudes vs HNK Rijeka
Rudes
- D2-2NK Slaven Belupo18 September 2026
- L2-3away to Istra 196113 September 2026
- L0-4HNK Hajduk Split6 September 2026
- L0-2away to NK Varazdin29 August 2026
- W4-1NK Lokomotiva Zagreb21 August 2026
HNK Rijeka
- W3-0HNK Hajduk Split20 September 2026
- D1-1away to NK Lokomotiva Zagreb12 September 2026
- W4-1NK Osijek5 September 2026
- D0-0away to HNK Gorica31 August 2026
- W3-2Istra 196123 August 2026
What these results say
- Rudes conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Rudes failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Rudes had three goals or more.
- HNK Rijeka went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- HNK Rijeka scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
HNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Rudes | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 10 | 24 | -14 | 4 |
| 5 | HNK Rijeka | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 7 | +6 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Rudes vs HNK Rijeka
- 2 August 2026HNK Rijeka 2–1 RudesHNL
- 30 March 2024Rudes 0–3 HNK RijekaHNL
- 28 February 2024Rudes 0–1 HNK RijekaCup
- 16 December 2023HNK Rijeka 3–0 RudesHNL
- 1 October 2023Rudes 1–2 HNK RijekaHNL
- 22 July 2023HNK Rijeka 4–0 RudesHNL
Leading scorers: Rudes and HNK Rijeka
Rudes
- L. Ilečić2 goals2 assists
HNK Rijeka
- D. Adu-Adjei4 goals3 assists
- T. Fruk2 goals3 assists
- Tiago Dantas2 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Rudes carry a model rating of 6.15 against 6.58 for HNK Rijeka. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.07 goals for Rudes and 1.88 for HNK Rijeka. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Rudes rate 0.59 in attack and 2.46 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; HNK Rijeka rate 0.66 and 1.16.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Rudes a 0% chance of the title and HNK Rijeka 6.6%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives HNK Rijeka the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Rudes against 1.88 for HNK Rijeka. Rudes's attack/defence rating is 0.59/2.46 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.66/1.16 for HNK Rijeka.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Rudes at home · HNK Rijeka away
League matches only, HNL, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All HNL matches this season: Rudes 8, HNK Rijeka 7.
Rudes score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); HNK Rijeka have let in 1 there.
HNK Rijeka score most often in the 31–45 minute window (6 goals); Rudes have let in 5 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Rudes
- at NK Osijek24 Oct · HNLwin 21%
- vs Dinamo Zagreb31 Oct · HNLwin 18%
- at NK Lokomotiva Zagreb7 Nov · HNLwin 23%
- vs NK Varazdin21 Nov · HNLwin 28%
HNK Rijeka
- at Dinamo Zagreb24 Oct · HNLwin 23%
- vs NK Varazdin31 Oct · HNLwin 41%
- at Istra 19617 Nov · HNLwin 37%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.