NK Osijek
vs
HNK Gorica
HNL prediction
Our model says: NK Osijek 1–0 HNK Gorica
The model makes it 43% NK Osijek, 31% draw, 26% HNK Gorica — fair odds of 2.33, 3.23 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (16%).
Expected goals: NK Osijek 1.31, HNK Gorica 0.77.
Both teams to score: 40%. Over 2.5 goals: 34%, under 2.5: 66%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- NK Osijek are 3rd on 16 points from 8 games; HNK Gorica are 9th on 5 points from 8 games — HNL.
- NK Osijek have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 0-0 draw away to NK Varazdin.
- HNK Gorica have won 1 of their last 5, most recently a 1-0 win away to Istra 1961.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 1 August 2026, ended HNK Gorica 0–2 NK Osijek.
All Croatian HNL predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: NK Osijek vs HNK Gorica
Has the model earned this number?
It puts NK Osijek at 43% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into NK Osijek vs HNK Gorica
NK Osijek
- D0-0away to NK Varazdin19 September 2026
- W4-2Dinamo Zagreb12 September 2026
- L1-4away to HNK Rijeka5 September 2026
- W3-0NK Slaven Belupo30 August 2026
- L0-4away to HNK Hajduk Split23 August 2026
HNK Gorica
- W1-0away to Istra 196119 September 2026
- D2-2NK Varazdin14 September 2026
- L0-1away to Dinamo Zagreb5 September 2026
- D0-0HNK Rijeka31 August 2026
- L0-2away to NK Slaven Belupo22 August 2026
What these results say
- 4 of these 5 matches for NK Osijek had three goals or more.
- HNK Gorica failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for HNK Gorica had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
HNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | NK Osijek | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 11 | +6 | 16 |
| 9 | HNK Gorica | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: NK Osijek vs HNK Gorica
- 1 August 2026HNK Gorica 0–2 NK OsijekHNL
- 16 May 2026HNK Gorica 2–0 NK OsijekHNL
- 14 March 2026NK Osijek 0–0 HNK GoricaHNL
- 13 December 2025NK Osijek 1–1 HNK GoricaHNL
- 28 September 2025HNK Gorica 0–1 NK OsijekHNL
- 19 April 2025NK Osijek 0–1 HNK GoricaHNL
Leading scorers: NK Osijek and HNK Gorica
NK Osijek
- A. León5 goals1 assist
- N. Omerović5 goals
HNK Gorica
- B. Bogojević3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
NK Osijek carry a model rating of 6.4 against 6.31 for HNK Gorica. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 1.31 goals for NK Osijek and 0.77 for HNK Gorica. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
NK Osijek rate 0.59 in attack and 1.45 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; HNK Gorica rate 0.46 and 1.41.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives NK Osijek a 1.9% chance of the title and HNK Gorica 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives NK Osijek the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.31 expected goals for NK Osijek against 0.77 for HNK Gorica. NK Osijek's attack/defence rating is 0.59/1.45 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.46/1.41 for HNK Gorica.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
NK Osijek at home · HNK Gorica away
League matches only, HNL, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All HNL matches this season: NK Osijek 8, HNK Gorica 8.
NK Osijek score most often in the 0–15 minute window (6 goals); HNK Gorica have let in 4 there.
HNK Gorica score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); NK Osijek have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
NK Osijek
- vs Rudes24 Oct · HNLwin 54%
- at NK Lokomotiva Zagreb31 Oct · HNLwin 32%
- vs HNK Hajduk Split7 Nov · HNLwin 32%
- at NK Slaven Belupo21 Nov · HNLwin 36%
HNK Gorica
- vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb24 Oct · HNLwin 37%
- at HNK Hajduk Split31 Oct · HNLwin 19%
- vs NK Slaven Belupo7 Nov · HNLwin 42%
- at HNK Rijeka21 Nov · HNLwin 21%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.