NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
vs
Istra 1961
HNL prediction
Our model says: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1–0 Istra 1961
The model makes it 40% NK Lokomotiva Zagreb, 30% draw, 30% Istra 1961 — fair odds of 2.50, 3.33 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1.45, Istra 1961 1.08.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%, under 2.5: 54%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- NK Lokomotiva Zagreb are 7th on 7 points from 8 games; Istra 1961 are 6th on 9 points from 8 games — HNL.
- NK Lokomotiva Zagreb have not won in their last 5, most recently a 2-3 defeat away to Dinamo Zagreb.
- Istra 1961 have won 1 of their last 5, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to HNK Gorica.
- Last 6 meetings: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 1 August 2026, ended Istra 1961 2–3 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb.
All Croatian HNL predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs Istra 1961
Has the model earned this number?
It puts NK Lokomotiva Zagreb at 40% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs Istra 1961
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
- L2-3away to Dinamo Zagreb20 September 2026
- D1-1HNK Rijeka12 September 2026
- L1-2away to NK Slaven Belupo6 September 2026
- L0-2away to HNK Hajduk Split31 August 2026
- L1-4away to Rudes21 August 2026
Istra 1961
- L0-1HNK Gorica19 September 2026
- W3-2Rudes13 September 2026
- D0-0away to NK Varazdin4 September 2026
- D2-2Dinamo Zagreb29 August 2026
- L2-3away to HNK Rijeka23 August 2026
What these results say
- NK Lokomotiva Zagreb did not win any of these 5 matches.
- NK Lokomotiva Zagreb conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- NK Lokomotiva Zagreb scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Istra 1961 failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Istra 1961 conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
HNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 11 | 16 | -5 | 7 |
| 6 | Istra 1961 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 13 | +1 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs Istra 1961
- 1 August 2026Istra 1961 2–3 NK Lokomotiva ZagrebHNL
- 11 April 2026NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 2–0 Istra 1961HNL
- 30 January 2026Istra 1961 1–1 NK Lokomotiva ZagrebHNL
- 25 October 2025NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1–2 Istra 1961HNL
- 9 August 2025Istra 1961 2–2 NK Lokomotiva ZagrebHNL
- 3 May 2025NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 0–0 Istra 1961HNL
Leading scorers: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb and Istra 1961
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
- D. Vuković3 goals2 assists
Istra 1961
- E. Frederiksen7 goals2 assists
- H. Jaganjac4 goals1 assist
- D. Ahmeti2 goals3 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb carry a model rating of 6.34 against 6.35 for Istra 1961. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.45 goals for NK Lokomotiva Zagreb and 1.08 for Istra 1961. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb rate 0.58 in attack and 1.61 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Istra 1961 rate 0.58 and 1.59.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Istra 1961, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives NK Lokomotiva Zagreb a 0% chance of the title and Istra 1961 0.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives NK Lokomotiva Zagreb the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.45 expected goals for NK Lokomotiva Zagreb against 1.08 for Istra 1961. NK Lokomotiva Zagreb's attack/defence rating is 0.58/1.61 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.58/1.59 for Istra 1961.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb at home · Istra 1961 away
League matches only, HNL, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All HNL matches this season: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 8, Istra 1961 8.
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); Istra 1961 have let in 6 there.
Istra 1961 score most often in the 16–30 minute window (5 goals); NK Lokomotiva Zagreb have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
- at HNK Gorica24 Oct · HNLwin 31%
- vs NK Osijek31 Oct · HNLwin 38%
- vs Rudes7 Nov · HNLwin 52%
- at HNK Hajduk Split21 Nov · HNLwin 20%
Istra 1961
- vs HNK Hajduk Split24 Oct · HNLwin 30%
- at NK Slaven Belupo31 Oct · HNLwin 34%
- vs HNK Rijeka7 Nov · HNLwin 32%
- at Dinamo Zagreb21 Nov · HNLwin 16%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.