Marseille vs Paris Saint Germain Ligue 1 prediction & result
Final score: Marseille 1-2 Paris Saint Germain.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% Marseille, 28% draw, 32% Paris Saint Germain — fair odds of 2.50, 3.57 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Marseille at 40% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Marseille vs Paris Saint Germain
Line-ups
- 1J. de LangeG
- 22T. WeahD
- 4C. Egan-RileyD
- 21N. AguerdD
- 33EmersonD
- 77A. HaritM
- 23P. HøjbjergM
- 8H. AbdelliM
- 14Igor PaixãoM
- 11N. MaupayF
- 9A. GouiriF
- 13D. CorneliusD
- 74K. BezahafD
- 7A. GomesM
- 25U. GarciaD
- 48K. AbdallahF
- 46E. MbondoD
- 43T. MmadiF
- 29F. MoumbagnaF
- 92T. VermotG
- 39M. SafonovG
- 33W. Zaïre-EmeryD
- 5MarquinhosD
- 51W. PachoD
- 25Nuno MendesD
- 87João NevesM
- 17VitinhaM
- 8Fabián RuizM
- 14D. DouéF
- 10O. DembéléF
- 7K. KvaratskheliaF
- 11M. AklioucheM
- 30L. ChevalierG
- 12L. DigneD
- 27Pedro FernándezM
- 22M. GodtsF
- 4BeraldoD
- 24Senny MayuluM
- 9Ferran TorresF
- 6I. ZabarnyiD
Form going into Marseille vs Paris Saint Germain
Marseille
Ligue 1
- L0-1away to Rennes11 September 2026
Paris Saint Germain
Ligue 1
- W1-0away to Stade Brestois 2913 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Marseille | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 18 | 13 | +5 | 12 |
| 1 | Paris Saint Germain | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 16 | 9 | +7 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Marseille vs Paris Saint Germain
- 8 February 2026Paris Saint Germain 5–0 MarseilleLigue 1
- 8 January 2026Paris Saint Germain 2–2 MarseilleTrophée des Champions
- 22 September 2025Marseille 1–0 Paris Saint GermainLigue 1
- 16 March 2025Paris Saint Germain 3–1 MarseilleLigue 1
- 27 October 2024Marseille 0–3 Paris Saint GermainLigue 1
Leading scorers: Marseille and Paris Saint Germain
Marseille
GoalsAssists
- A. Gouiri52
- H. Abdelli30
Paris Saint Germain
GoalsAssists
- Ferran Torres41
- Marquinhos30
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Paris Saint Germain won 2–1 at Marseille. The model had leaned towards a win for Marseille at 40% and given a win for Paris Saint Germain 32%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Ferrán Torres 66' for Paris Saint Germain, Angel Gomes 72' for Marseille, Marcos Aoás Corrêa 74' for Paris Saint Germain. Sent off: Timothy Weah (Marseille) 77'.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.