22 August 2026, 23:30 UTC

Inter Miami vs Toronto FC Major League Soccer prediction & result

Nu Stadium, Fort Lauderdale
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Inter Miami 1-2 Toronto FC.

Before kick-off the model made it 71% Inter Miami, 15% draw, 14% Toronto FC — fair odds of 1.41, 6.67 and 7.14.

Most likely scoreline: 3-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Inter Miami at 71%: of 501 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.5% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Inter Miami0%Draw9%Toronto FC91%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

🔁G. Lujanout: F. Mura
26'
37'
Richie Laryea
Maximiliano Falcón
53'
🔁S. Reguilonout: N. Allen
58'
59'
⚽J. Sargentassist: D. Salloi
62'
⚽D. Etienne
65'
🔁D. Salloiout: Matheus Pereira
🔁Casemiroout: D. Ayala
73'
🔁T. Segoviaout: D. Pinter
73'
🔁L. Suarezout: L. Delinois
73'
77'
🔁J. Sargentout: T. Corbeanu
⚽L. Messiassist: R. de Paul
82'
86'
🔁D. Etienneout: J. Gilman
87'
🔁D. Mihailovicout: N. Gomis
David Ayala
90+5'

Match stats — Inter Miami vs Toronto FC

62%Possession38%
10Shots7
3On target3
3Corners2
1.83xG0.51

Goals against chances

Inter Miami1 from 1.83 xGless than the chances were worth
Toronto FC2 from 0.51 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Inter Miami 4-3-2-1
  • 97D. St.ClairG
  • 17I. FrayD
  • 2G. LujanD
  • 37M. FalconD
  • 3S. ReguilonD
  • 7R. de PaulM
  • 5CasemiroM
  • 8T. SegoviaM
  • 10L. MessiM
  • 9L. SuarezM
  • 19G. BerterameF
Substitutes
  • 34R. RiosG
  • 4F. MuraD
  • 32N. AllenD
  • 22D. AyalaM
  • 15F. CaicedoD
  • 59P. PlambeckM
  • 88A. ShawM
  • 56D. PinterF
  • 54L. DelinoisF
Coach: Guillermo Hoyos Angel
Toronto FC 4-2-3-1
  • 1L. GavranG
  • 19K. FranklinD
  • 13B. KuscevicD
  • 12Z. MonlouisD
  • 22R. LaryeaD
  • 71M. CimermancicM
  • 14A. CoelloM
  • 11D. EtienneM
  • 10D. MihailovicM
  • 20D. SalloiM
  • 9J. SargentF
Substitutes
  • 23W. YarbroughG
  • 44R. EdwardsD
  • 15N. GomisD
  • 3Matheus PereiraD
  • 38J. GilmanD
  • 78M. HenryM
  • 7T. CorbeanuF
  • 99J. VilsaintF
  • 17E. AristizabalF
Coach: Robin Fraser

Form going into Inter Miami vs Toronto FC

Inter Miami

All competitions we cover

  • D2-2away to Philadelphia Union19 August 2026
  • L1-4away to Nashville SC16 August 2026
  • D2-2Columbus Crew1 August 2026
  • W1-0away to CF Montreal25 July 2026
  • W3-2Chicago Fire22 July 2026

Toronto FC

All competitions we cover

  • D3-3Charlotte19 August 2026
  • W2-1New England Revolution15 August 2026
  • D1-1away to New York City FC31 July 2026
  • L1-2away to DC United25 July 2026
  • D0-0away to New England Revolution22 July 2026

What these results say

  • Inter Miami scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Inter Miami conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Inter Miami had three goals or more.
  • Toronto FC failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Toronto FC scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Toronto FC conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Major League Soccer table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Inter Miami34161268059+2160
12Toronto FC34912135267-1539

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Inter Miami vs Toronto FC

  • 9 May 2026Toronto FC 2–4 Inter MiamiMajor League Soccer
  • 27 September 2025Toronto FC 1–1 Inter MiamiMajor League Soccer
  • 6 April 2025Inter Miami 1–1 Toronto FCMajor League Soccer
  • 5 October 2024Toronto FC 0–1 Inter MiamiMajor League Soccer
  • 8 August 2024Inter Miami 4–3 Toronto FCLeagues Cup
  • 17 July 2024Inter Miami 3–1 Toronto FCMajor League Soccer

Leading scorers: Inter Miami and Toronto FC

Inter Miami

GoalsAssists

  • L. Messi2613
  • L. Suárez166

Toronto FC

No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 52 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Toronto FC won 2–1 at Inter Miami. The model had leaned towards a win for Inter Miami at 71% and given a win for Toronto FC 14%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 7 matches like this one. The goals: J. Sargent 59' for Toronto FC, D. Etienne 62' for Toronto FC, L. Messi 82' for Inter Miami. On expected goals it finished 1.83–0.51.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.