Inter Miami
vs
DC United
Major League Soccer prediction
Our model says: Inter Miami 2–1 DC United
The model makes it 59% Inter Miami, 22% draw, 19% DC United — fair odds of 1.69, 4.55 and 5.26. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (8%).
Expected goals: Inter Miami 2.98, DC United 1.19.
Both teams to score: 66%. Over 2.5 goals: 79%, under 2.5: 21%.
Model confidence: High.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Inter Miami vs DC United
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Inter Miami at 59% here. Across 2837 settled matches, 675 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Inter Miami vs DC United
Inter Miami
- D2-2San Diego20 September 2026
- D2-2Nashville SC12 September 2026
- D1-1away to Chicago Fire10 September 2026
- D2-2Atlanta United FC5 September 2026
- W7-1CF Montreal29 August 2026
DC United
- L1-2Charlotte19 September 2026
- D0-0Atlanta United FC12 September 2026
- W2-1Columbus Crew9 September 2026
- D0-0Los Angeles FC29 August 2026
- L1-3away to Charlotte22 August 2026
What these results say
- Inter Miami went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Inter Miami scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Inter Miami conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- DC United failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Leading scorers: Inter Miami and DC United
Inter Miami
- L. Messi20 goals11 assists
- L. Suárez12 goals2 assists
DC United
- T. Baribo14 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Inter Miami carry a model rating of 6.75 against 6.37 for DC United. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.98 goals for Inter Miami and 1.19 for DC United. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Inter Miami rate 1.13 in attack and 1.49 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; DC United rate 0.55 and 1.45.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1326 correct results out of 2837 settled predictions (47%), with 271 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Inter Miami the highest probability at 59%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.98 expected goals for Inter Miami against 1.19 for DC United. Inter Miami's attack/defence rating is 1.13/1.49 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.55/1.45 for DC United.