Inter Miami vs DC United Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: Inter Miami 4-0 DC United.
Before kick-off the model made it 66% Inter Miami, 18% draw, 16% DC United — fair odds of 1.52, 5.56 and 6.25.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Inter Miami at 66%: of 501 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.5% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Inter Miami vs DC United
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 97D. St. ClairG
- 2G. LujánD
- 5CasemiroD
- 16MicaelD
- 3ReguilónD
- 7R. De PaulM
- 22D. AyalaM
- 80M. GalarzaM
- 10L. MessiF
- 9L. SuárezF
- 19G. BerterameF
- 88A. ShawM
- 17I. FrayD
- 37M. FalcónD
- 76Ezequiel Abadia-RedaD
- 11Riquelme FillipiF
- 56Daniel PinterF
- 59P. PlambeckM
- 34R. Ríos NovoG
- 8T. SegoviaM
- 1S. JohnsonG
- 2K. NonoD
- 3L. BartlettD
- 15K. RowlesD
- 6K. KurokawaD
- 77Hosei KijimaM
- 27Nikola MarkovicM
- 21A. DozzellM
- 7PeglowM
- 9T. BariboF
- 25J. HopkinsF
- 12C. AntleyD
- 32O. AvilezF
- 26A. BonoG
- 5S. HeftiD
- 13S. NealisD
- 22N. OrdazF
- 4M. PeltolaD
- 23B. ServaniaM
- 8J. StroudM
Form going into Inter Miami vs DC United
Inter Miami
All competitions we cover
- L1-2away to Columbus Crew27 September 2026
- D2-2San Diego20 September 2026
- D2-2Nashville SC12 September 2026
- D1-1away to Chicago Fire10 September 2026
- D2-2Atlanta United FC5 September 2026
DC United
All competitions we cover
- D3-3away to Vancouver Whitecaps27 September 2026
- L1-2Charlotte19 September 2026
- D0-0Atlanta United FC12 September 2026
- W2-1Columbus Crew9 September 2026
- D0-0Los Angeles FC29 August 2026
What these results say
- Inter Miami did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Inter Miami scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Inter Miami conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- DC United failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Inter Miami | 34 | 16 | 12 | 6 | 80 | 59 | +21 | 60 |
| 14 | DC United | 34 | 7 | 12 | 15 | 39 | 61 | -22 | 33 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Inter Miami vs DC United
- 7 March 2026DC United 1–2 Inter MiamiMajor League Soccer
- 20 September 2025Inter Miami 3–2 DC UnitedMajor League Soccer
- 23 August 2025DC United 1–1 Inter MiamiMajor League Soccer
- 18 May 2024Inter Miami 1–0 DC UnitedMajor League Soccer
- 16 March 2024DC United 1–3 Inter MiamiMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: Inter Miami and DC United
Inter Miami
GoalsAssists
- L. Messi2613
- L. Suárez166
DC United
GoalsAssists
- T. Baribo161
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Inter Miami beat DC United 4–0. The model had made a win for Inter Miami its most likely outcome, at 66%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Luis Suárez 3' for Inter Miami, Luis Suárez 39' for Inter Miami, Lionel Messi 47' for Inter Miami, Lionel Messi 60' for Inter Miami. On expected goals it finished 2.57–0.60.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Inter Miami a 92.3% chance to finish in the top four: 94.9% after a win, 88.5% after a draw, 84.6% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 94.9%, 2.6 points higher than before the match.
For DC United the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 32.2% going in: 16.4% after a win, 28.3% after a draw, 35.9% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 35.9%, 3.7 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Major League Soccer season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Inter Miami v DC United has moved
First published on 26 Sep at 59% / 22% / 19% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 66% / 18% / 16%: the biggest move is Inter Miami's chance of winning, up 7 points.
- Inter Miami win66%▲ +7
- Draw18%▼ −4
- DC United win16%▼ −3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.