Al Taawon
vs
Al-Hilal
Pro League prediction & result
Final score: Al Taawon 0-6 Al-Hilal.
Before kick-off the model made it 26% Al Taawon, 29% draw, 45% Al-Hilal — fair odds of 3.85, 3.45 and 2.22. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Al Taawon 1.00, Al-Hilal 1.65.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Model insights: Al Taawon vs Al-Hilal
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Al-Hilal at 45% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Al Taawon vs Al-Hilal
Al Taawon
- L0-1away to Al-Hazm8 September 2026
- D0-0Al-Fateh5 September 2026
- L1-2away to Al-Nassr28 August 2026
- D0-0Al-Fayha25 August 2026
Al-Hilal
- L0-2NEOM7 September 2026
- W2-0away to Al Shabab4 September 2026
- W3-0Al-Ahli Jeddah1 September 2026
- W5-1away to Al Khaleej Saihat28 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Al Taawon | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 12 | -9 | 3 |
| 1 | Al-Hilal | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 23 | 5 | +18 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Al Taawon and Al-Hilal
Al Taawon
No player in Pro League's leading scorers — 3 league goals as a side.
Al-Hilal
- S. Milinković-Savić4 goals1 assists
- Sultan Mandash3 goals2 assists
- O. Watkins3 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
The two sides
Al Taawon carry a model rating of 6.39 against 6.79 for Al-Hilal. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.00 goals for Al Taawon and 1.65 for Al-Hilal. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Al Taawon rate 0.57 in attack and 1.44 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Al-Hilal rate 0.95 and 1.08.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Al Taawon a 0% chance of the title and Al-Hilal 79.1%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Al-Hilal the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1 expected goals for Al Taawon against 1.65 for Al-Hilal. Al Taawon's attack/defence rating is 0.57/1.44 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.95/1.08 for Al-Hilal.