12 September 2026, 15:50 UTC

Al Taawon vs Al-Hilal Pro League prediction & result

Al Taawon Arena, Buraidah
Full time0 – 6

Final score: Al Taawon 0-6 Al-Hilal.

Before kick-off the model made it 35% Al Taawon, 28% draw, 37% Al-Hilal — fair odds of 2.86, 3.57 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Al-Hilal at 37% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Al Taawon0%Draw1%Al-Hilal99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

9'
⚽O. Watkinsassist: R. Neves
18'
⚽G. Martinelli
35'
Mohammed Mahzari
🔁B. Al Hurayjiout: S. Rajab
35'
Ibrahim Mahnashi
40'
43'
⚽G. Martinelliassist: O. Watkins
50'
⚽G. Martinelliassist: C. Summerville
53'
⚽O. Watkins
54'
🔁M. Mahzariout: Y. Akcicek
54'
🔁G. Martinelliout: S. Mandash
🔁O. Dorleyout: N. Al Haleel
59'
🔁Y. El Bahraouiout: R. Al Tulayhi
59'
🔁I. Mahnashiout: A. Hendi
59'
🔁M. Al Kuwaykibiout: S. M. Al Aqel M.
60'
70'
🔁H. Tambaktiout: M. Al Sarnoukh
70'
🔁K. Koulibalyout: N. Al Dawsari
75'
⚽S. Mandashassist: O. Watkins
76'
🔁R. Nevesout: M. Al Hawsawi

Match stats — Al Taawon vs Al-Hilal

45%Possession55%
15Shots20
4On target10
4Corners2
1.32xG5.41

Goals against chances

Al Taawon0 from 1.32 xGless than the chances were worth
Al-Hilal6 from 5.41 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Al Taawon 5-4-1
  • 1MailsonG
  • 6B. Al HurayjiD
  • 40I. MahnashiD
  • 93A. Al SaluliD
  • 5Z. BelaidD
  • 88M. PetkovD
  • 7M. Al KuwaykibiM
  • 19O. DorleyM
  • 18A. El MahdiouiM
  • 8P. GuiagonM
  • 47Y. El BahraouiF
Substitutes
  • 30A. Al JadaniG
  • 4N. Al HaleelD
  • 43N. Al HawairyD
  • 10N. BajramiM
  • 23R. Al TulayhiM
  • 16F. Al GhamdiM
  • 70A. Hendi
  • 14S. RajabF
  • 17S. M. Al Aqel M.F
Coach: Zarko Lazetic
Al-Hilal 4-3-3
  • 37BonoG
  • 2M. MahzariD
  • 87H. TambaktiD
  • 3K. KoulibalyD
  • 24M. Al HarbiD
  • 22S. Milinkovic-SavicM
  • 8R. NevesM
  • 28M. KannoM
  • 7G. MartinelliF
  • 11O. WatkinsF
  • 38C. SummervilleF
Substitutes
  • 33M. Al OwaisG
  • 4Y. AkcicekD
  • 73M. Al SarnoukhD
  • 6N. Al DawsariM
  • 77N. Al HabashiM
  • 96S. Al ZaidM
  • 18M. Al HawsawiM
  • 93A. Al AnaziM
  • 27S. MandashF
Coach: Simone Inzaghi

Form going into Al Taawon vs Al-Hilal

Al Taawon

All competitions we cover

  • L0-1away to Al-Hazm8 September 2026
  • D0-0Al-Fateh5 September 2026

Al-Hilal

Pro League

  • L0-2NEOM7 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Pro League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
17Al Taawon11047519-144
3Al-Hilal10901309+2127

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Leading scorers: Al Taawon and Al-Hilal

Al Taawon

No player in Pro League's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.

Al-Hilal

GoalsAssists

  • Gabriel Martinelli60
  • S. Milinković-Savić52
  • O. Watkins45

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Al-Hilal won 6–0 at Al Taawon. The model had made a win for Al-Hilal its most likely outcome, at 37%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: O. Watkins 9' for Al-Hilal, G. Martinelli 18' for Al-Hilal, G. Martinelli 43' for Al-Hilal, G. Martinelli 50' for Al-Hilal, O. Watkins 53' for Al-Hilal, S. Mandash 75' for Al-Hilal. On expected goals it finished 1.32–5.41.

How the call on Al Taawon v Al-Hilal has moved

First published on 1 Sep at 32% / 27% / 41% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 7 updates, it read 35% / 28% / 37%: the biggest move is Al-Hilal's chance of winning, down 4 points.

  1. Al Taawon win35%▲ +3
  2. Draw28%▲ +1
  3. Al-Hilal win37%▼ −4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.