26 July 2026, 03:00 UTC

Santos Laguna vs Atlas Liga MX prediction & result

Estadio Corona
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Santos Laguna 0-1 Atlas.

Before kick-off the model made it 24% Santos Laguna, 30% draw, 46% Atlas — fair odds of 4.17, 3.33 and 2.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Atlas at 46% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

C. Gruezo
30'
45+1'
Gustavo Ferrareis
64'
⚽E. Zaldivar
🔁L. Di Yorioout: D. Gonzalez
65'
66'
🔁Gustavo Ferrareisout: J. Sanchez
69'
🔁A. Rochaout: V. H. Rios De Alba
🔁R. Sordoout: E. Orona
71'
🔁C. Gruezoout: A. Lopez
71'
77'
🔁A. Gonzalezout: L. Esteves
77'
🔁S. Hernandezout: J. Lozano
77'
🔁E. Zaldivarout: P. Ramirez
🔁M. Cuevasout: K. Picon
84'
🔁S. Mariscal Murraout: J. Mancha
84'
F. Villalba
90+8'

Match stats — Santos Laguna vs Atlas

56%Possession44%
11Shots11
1On target5
4Corners5
0.83xG1.12

Goals against chances

Santos Laguna0 from 0.83 xGless than the chances were worth
Atlas1 from 1.12 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Santos Laguna 4-2-3-1
  • 1Carlos AcevedoG
  • 3Mauricio CuevasD
  • 18Franco PardoD
  • 25Felipe SánchezD
  • 17Emmanuel EcheverríaD
  • 8Salvador MariscalM
  • 11Carlos GruezoM
  • 21Fran VillalbaM
  • 10Ezequiel BullaudeM
  • 26Ramiro SordoM
  • 9Lucas Di YorioF
Substitutes
  • 33Hector HolguinG
  • 4José AbellaD
  • 14Efrain OronaM
  • 22Kevin PiconD
  • 15Joshua ManchaM
  • 24Diego MedinaM
  • 5Aldo Lopez VargasM
  • 6Javier GüemezM
  • 19Eduardo AguirreF
Coach: Paiva Renato
Atlas 4-2-3-1
  • 12Camilo VargasG
  • 2Gustavo FerrareisD
  • 28Manuel CapassoD
  • 21Rodrigo SchlegelD
  • 16Milton ValenzuelaD
  • 26Aldo RochaM
  • 6Edgar ZaldívarM
  • 11DukM
  • 58Arturo GonzálezM
  • 23Sergio HernandezM
  • 8Ryan MmaeeF
Substitutes
  • 22Antonio SánchezG
  • 4Adrián MoraD
  • 13Gaddi AguirreD
  • 17Jose LozanoD
  • 3Jorge SánchezD
  • 15Paulo RamírezD
  • 192Jesús SerratoM
  • 27Victor RiosM
  • 10Luís EstevesM
Coach: Hernan Crespo

Form going into Santos Laguna vs Atlas

Santos Laguna

  • L2-3away to Monterrey19 July 2026

Atlas

  • W3-2away to Leon18 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Liga MX table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
17Santos Laguna8116613-74
9Atlas84131214-213

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Santos Laguna vs Atlas

  • 26 July 2026Santos Laguna 0–1 AtlasLiga MX
  • 19 April 2026Santos Laguna 0–1 AtlasLiga MX
  • 14 September 2025Atlas 2–2 Santos LagunaLiga MX
  • 23 February 2025Santos Laguna 2–0 AtlasLiga MX
  • 17 July 2024Atlas 1–0 Santos LagunaLiga MX
  • 5 February 2024Atlas 3–0 Santos LagunaLiga MX
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.