Guadalajara Chivas vs FC Juarez Liga MX prediction & result
Final score: Guadalajara Chivas 1-0 FC Juarez.
Before kick-off the model made it 49% Guadalajara Chivas, 25% draw, 26% FC Juarez — fair odds of 2.04, 4.00 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Guadalajara Chivas at 49% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Guadalajara Chivas vs FC Juarez
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Raúl RangelG
- 23Daniel AguirreD
- 7Luis RomoD
- 2José CastilloD
- 28Fernando GonzálezM
- 37Richard LedezmaM
- 11Brian GutiérrezM
- 33Jordan CarrilloM
- 5Bryan GonzálezM
- 25Roberto AlvaradoF
- 34Armando GonzálezF
- 10Efrain AlvarezF
- 3Diego CampilloD
- 19Kevin CastañedaM
- 17Ricardo MarínF
- 18Jonathan PerezM
- 13Óscar WhalleyG
- 24Miguel GómezD
- 56Ángel ChávezD
- 16Luis Gabriel ReyD
- 1Sebastián JuradoG
- 20Javier AquinoD
- 2Gilberto SepúlvedaD
- 3Jesús MurilloD
- 23Haret OrtegaD
- 4Alejandro MayorgaD
- 21RicardinhoM
- 5Denzell GarciaM
- 8Guilherme CastilhoM
- 11José Luis RodríguezM
- 19Óscar EstupiñánF
- 33Francisco NevarezD
- 6MonchuM
- 10Jairo TorresF
- 17Luca Martínez DupuyF
- 198Ricardo JuárezD
- 27Guillermo RuizG
- 7Raymundo FulgencioM
- 25Said GodínezM
- 201Jan CarmonaM
Form going into Guadalajara Chivas vs FC Juarez
Guadalajara Chivas
- L0-2Toluca19 July 2026
FC Juarez
- L0-1Puebla18 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Guadalajara Chivas | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 6 | +9 | 17 |
| 18 | FC Juarez | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 4 | 23 | -19 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Guadalajara Chivas vs FC Juarez
- 14 January 2026FC Juarez 0–1 Guadalajara ChivasLiga MX
- 16 August 2025Guadalajara Chivas 1–2 FC JuarezLiga MX
- 16 March 2025FC Juarez 1–1 Guadalajara ChivasLiga MX
- 31 August 2024Guadalajara Chivas 5–0 FC JuarezLiga MX
- 10 February 2024Guadalajara Chivas 2–1 FC JuarezLiga MX
- 19 August 2023FC Juarez 1–1 Guadalajara ChivasLiga MX
Leading scorers: Guadalajara Chivas and FC Juarez
Guadalajara Chivas
- R. Alvarado3 goals
FC Juarez
- Ó. Estupiñán3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.