Los Angeles FC
vs
Austin
Major League Soccer prediction
Our model says: Los Angeles FC 1–0 Austin
The model makes it 47% Los Angeles FC, 28% draw, 25% Austin — fair odds of 2.13, 3.57 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Los Angeles FC 1.75, Austin 0.95.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Los Angeles FC are 6th on 41 points from 28 games; Austin are 13th on 31 points from 27 games — Major League Soccer, Western Conference.
- Los Angeles FC are without a win in 3, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to FC Dallas.
- Austin are unbeaten in their last 5 (1 won), most recently a 3-3 draw at home to San Diego.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 22 March 2026, ended Austin 0–0 Los Angeles FC.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Los Angeles FC vs Austin
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Los Angeles FC at 47% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Los Angeles FC vs Austin
Los Angeles FC
- L0-1away to FC Dallas27 September 2026
- D2-2away to San Jose Earthquakes19 September 2026
- L1-3away to Sporting Kansas City13 September 2026
- W2-0New York Red Bulls10 September 2026
- D2-2away to Real Salt Lake6 September 2026
Austin
- D3-3San Diego27 September 2026
- D0-0away to FC Dallas20 September 2026
- W2-1away to Vancouver Whitecaps13 September 2026
- D1-1Colorado Rapids10 September 2026
- D1-1San Jose Earthquakes6 September 2026
What these results say
- Los Angeles FC failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Los Angeles FC scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Los Angeles FC conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Austin went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Austin failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Austin scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Los Angeles FC | 28 | 11 | 8 | 9 | 43 | 30 | +13 | 41 |
| 13 | Austin | 27 | 7 | 10 | 10 | 35 | 47 | -12 | 31 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Los Angeles FC vs Austin
- 22 March 2026Austin 0–0 Los Angeles FCMajor League Soccer
- 3 November 2025Austin 1–4 Los Angeles FCMajor League Soccer
- 30 October 2025Los Angeles FC 2–1 AustinMajor League Soccer
- 12 October 2025Austin 1–0 Los Angeles FCMajor League Soccer
- 15 March 2025Los Angeles FC 0–1 AustinMajor League Soccer
- 19 September 2024Los Angeles FC 1–1 AustinMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: Los Angeles FC and Austin
Los Angeles FC
- D. Bouanga14 goals5 assists
Austin
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 35 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Los Angeles FC carry a model rating of 6.62 against 6.42 for Austin. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.75 goals for Los Angeles FC and 0.95 for Austin. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Los Angeles FC rate 0.67 in attack and 1.09 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Austin rate 0.60 and 1.43.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Los Angeles FC a 0.1% chance of the title and Austin 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Los Angeles FC the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Los Angeles FC against 0.95 for Austin. Los Angeles FC's attack/defence rating is 0.67/1.09 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.6/1.43 for Austin.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Los Angeles FC at home · Austin away
League matches only, Major League Soccer, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Major League Soccer matches this season: Los Angeles FC 28, Austin 27.
Los Angeles FC score most often in the 31–45 minute window (10 goals); Austin have let in 5 there.
Austin score most often in the 76–90 minute window (15 goals); Los Angeles FC have let in 6 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Los Angeles FC
- at New York City FC17 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 33%
- vs Los Angeles Galaxy26 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 48%
- vs Minnesota United FC2 Nov · Major League Soccerwin 49%
- at Seattle Sounders8 Nov · Major League Soccerwin 36%
Austin
- vs Vancouver Whitecaps18 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 28%
- at Sporting Kansas City25 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 37%
- vs Real Salt Lake29 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 41%
- at Los Angeles Galaxy31 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 32%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.