Napoli
vs
Como
Serie A prediction
The model makes it 51% Napoli, 22% draw, 27% Como — fair odds of 1.96, 4.55 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Napoli 2.07, Como 1.47.
Both teams to score: 68%. Over 2.5 goals: 69%, under 2.5: 31%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Head-to-head: Napoli vs Como
- 2 May 2026Como 0–0 NapoliSerie A
- 10 February 2026Napoli 1–1 ComoCoppa Italia
- 1 November 2025Napoli 0–0 ComoSerie A
- 23 February 2025Como 2–1 NapoliSerie A
- 4 October 2024Napoli 3–1 ComoSerie A
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Napoli carry a model rating of 7.01 against 6.99 for Como. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.07 goals for Napoli and 1.47 for Como. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Napoli rate 1.19 in attack and 0.86 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Como rate 1.22 and 0.92.
That points to 69% for over two and a half goals and 68% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (9%), 2-1 (9%), 2-2 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 400 correct results out of 828 settled predictions (48%), with 78 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Napoli the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.07 expected goals for Napoli against 1.47 for Como. Napoli's attack/defence rating is 1.19/0.86 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.22/0.92 for Como.