Lazio
vs
Genoa
Serie A prediction
The model makes it 67% Lazio, 19% draw, 14% Genoa — fair odds of 1.49, 5.26 and 7.14. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (10%).
Expected goals: Lazio 2.27, Genoa 0.94.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 62%, under 2.5: 38%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Head-to-head: Lazio vs Genoa
- 30 January 2026Lazio 3–2 GenoaSerie A
- 29 September 2025Genoa 0–3 LazioSerie A
- 23 April 2025Genoa 0–2 LazioSerie A
- 27 October 2024Lazio 3–0 GenoaSerie A
- 19 April 2024Genoa 0–1 LazioSerie A
- 5 December 2023Lazio 1–0 GenoaCoppa Italia
The two sides
Lazio carry a model rating of 6.97 against 6.68 for Genoa. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.27 goals for Lazio and 0.94 for Genoa. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Lazio rate 1.11 in attack and 0.88 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Genoa rate 0.76 and 1.08.
That points to 62% for over two and a half goals and 55% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-0 (10%), 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (9%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 400 correct results out of 828 settled predictions (48%), with 78 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Lazio the highest probability at 67%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.27 expected goals for Lazio against 0.94 for Genoa. Lazio's attack/defence rating is 1.11/0.88 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.76/1.08 for Genoa.