Cagliari
vs
Inter
Serie A prediction
The model makes it 30% Cagliari, 22% draw, 48% Inter — fair odds of 3.33, 4.55 and 2.08. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (8%).
Expected goals: Cagliari 1.69, Inter 2.16.
Both teams to score: 72%. Over 2.5 goals: 74%, under 2.5: 26%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Head-to-head: Cagliari vs Inter
- 17 April 2026Inter 3–0 CagliariSerie A
- 27 September 2025Cagliari 0–2 InterSerie A
- 12 April 2025Inter 3–1 CagliariSerie A
- 28 December 2024Cagliari 0–3 InterSerie A
- 14 April 2024Inter 2–2 CagliariSerie A
- 28 August 2023Cagliari 0–2 InterSerie A
The two sides
Cagliari carry a model rating of 6.88 against 7.16 for Inter. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.69 goals for Cagliari and 2.16 for Inter. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Cagliari rate 1.09 in attack and 1.02 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Inter rate 1.51 and 0.82.
That points to 74% for over two and a half goals and 72% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-2 (8%), 1-1 (8%), 2-2 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 400 correct results out of 828 settled predictions (48%), with 78 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Inter the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Cagliari against 2.16 for Inter. Cagliari's attack/defence rating is 1.09/1.02 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.51/0.82 for Inter.