Napoli
vs
AS Roma
Serie A prediction
Our model says: Napoli 0–1 AS Roma
The model makes it 30% Napoli, 29% draw, 41% AS Roma — fair odds of 3.33, 3.45 and 2.44. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Napoli 1.07, AS Roma 1.36.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 44%, under 2.5: 56%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Edge to AS Roma: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
The full preview, with the complete head-to-head record →
Key facts
- Napoli are 8th on 10 points from 6 games; AS Roma are 3rd on 14 points from 6 games — Serie A.
- Napoli are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 3-0 win at home to Frosinone.
- AS Roma are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 0-0 draw away to Como.
- Last 6 meetings: Napoli 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 15 February 2026, ended Napoli 2–2 AS Roma.
More Serie A predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Napoli vs AS Roma
Has the model earned this number?
It puts AS Roma at 41% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Napoli vs AS Roma
Napoli
- W3-0Frosinone10 October 2026
- D1-1away to Fiorentina20 September 2026
- W1-0Bologna13 September 2026
- L2-3away to Inter5 September 2026
- L1-2Como30 August 2026
AS Roma
- D0-0away to Como11 October 2026
- D2-2Inter19 September 2026
- W2-0away to Torino14 September 2026
- W2-1Atalanta5 September 2026
- W4-0away to Lecce31 August 2026
What these results say
- Napoli scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- AS Roma went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- AS Roma scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Napoli | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 6 | +4 | 10 |
| 3 | AS Roma | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 14 | 3 | +11 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Napoli
Chance to finish in the top four · 45% today
AS Roma
Chance to win the league · 38% today
From our Serie A season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Napoli vs AS Roma
- 15 February 2026Napoli 2–2 AS RomaSerie A
- 30 November 2025AS Roma 0–1 NapoliSerie A
- 2 February 2025AS Roma 1–1 NapoliSerie A
- 24 November 2024Napoli 1–0 AS RomaSerie A
- 28 April 2024Napoli 2–2 AS RomaSerie A
- 23 December 2023AS Roma 2–0 NapoliSerie A
Leading scorers: Napoli and AS Roma
Napoli
GoalsAssists
- K. De Bruyne31
AS Roma
GoalsAssists
- D. Malen60
- M. Soulé21
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Napoli carry a model rating of 7.17 against 7.34 for AS Roma. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.07 goals for Napoli and 1.36 for AS Roma. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Napoli rate 1.32 in attack and 0.70 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; AS Roma rate 1.55 and 0.58.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Napoli a 4.3% chance of the title and AS Roma 37.6%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives AS Roma the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Napoli against 1.36 for AS Roma. Napoli's attack/defence rating is 1.32/0.7 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.55/0.58 for AS Roma.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Napoli at home · AS Roma away
League matches only, Serie A, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
NapoliAS Roma
Napoli are 6th after 6 Serie A matches (between 2nd and 10th so far); AS Roma are 2nd after 6 (between 1st and 2nd). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie A matches this season: Napoli 6, AS Roma 6.
Napoli score most often in the 16–30 minute window (3 goals); AS Roma have let in 0 there.
AS Roma score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Napoli have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Napoli
- at Monza28 Oct · Serie Awin 61%
- at Juventus1 Nov · Serie Awin 33%
- at FC Porto4 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 22%
AS Roma
- vs Cagliari27 Oct · Serie Awin 59%
- at Udinese31 Oct · Serie Awin 59%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.