Laval
vs
Montpellier
Ligue 2 prediction
Our model says: Laval 0–1 Montpellier
The model makes it 22% Laval, 28% draw, 50% Montpellier — fair odds of 4.55, 3.57 and 2.00.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1 (13%).
Expected goals: Laval 0.88, Montpellier 1.58.
Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 45%, under 2.5: 55%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
One-sided: Montpellier are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Laval's rating is built from 48 Ligue 2 matches and Montpellier's from 46, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 727 matches.
Key facts
- Laval are bottom on 9 points from 12 games; Montpellier are 3rd on 24 points from 12 games — Ligue 2.
- Laval have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Saint Etienne.
- Montpellier have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-3 defeat at home to Metz.
- Last 3 meetings: Montpellier 3 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 13 March 2026, ended Montpellier 2–0 Laval.
More Ligue 2 predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Laval vs Montpellier
Has the model earned this number?
Montpellier at 50%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Laval vs Montpellier
Laval
Ligue 2
- L0-2away to Saint Etienne7 November 2026
- W1-0Boulogne30 October 2026
- L0-1away to Nancy23 October 2026
- D3-3Clermont Foot16 October 2026
- L2-3away to PAU9 October 2026
Montpellier
Ligue 2
- L2-3Metz6 November 2026
- W3-0away to Annecy31 October 2026
- W2-1RED Star FC 9326 October 2026
- W3-0away to Rodez19 October 2026
- W2-0Grenoble9 October 2026
What these results say
- Laval failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Laval conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Montpellier scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Montpellier won 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Montpellier had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ligue 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Laval | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 14 | 23 | -9 | 9 |
| 3 | Montpellier | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 18 | 9 | +9 | 24 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Laval
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 66% today
Montpellier
Chance to finish in the top two · 52% today
From our Ligue 2 season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Laval vs Montpellier
- 13 March 2026Montpellier 2–0 LavalLigue 2
- 27 September 2025Laval 0–1 MontpellierLigue 2
- 25 October 2016Laval 0–2 MontpellierCoupe de la Ligue
Leading scorers: Laval and Montpellier
Laval
GoalsAssists
- M. Houdayer40
Montpellier
GoalsAssists
- N. Pays52
- Lacine Megnan-Pave42
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Laval a 0% chance of the title and Montpellier 23%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Montpellier the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.88 expected goals for Laval against 1.58 for Montpellier. Laval's attack/defence rating is 0.57/1.81 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.71/1.05 for Montpellier.
How the model reaches 50% for Montpellier to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Montpellier to win. Then home advantage takes away 5 points, Laval's ratings add 10 points and Montpellier's ratings add 9 points, which lands on the published 50%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage31%−5
- Laval's ratings41%+10
- Montpellier's ratings50%+9
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Laval at home · Montpellier away
League matches only, Ligue 2, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
LavalMontpellier
Laval are 18th after 12 Ligue 2 matches (between 8th and 18th so far); Montpellier are 3rd after 12 (between 1st and 5th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 2 matches this season: Laval 12, Montpellier 12.
Laval score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Montpellier have let in 1 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Laval
- at Annecy4 Dec · Ligue 2win 25%
- vs Dunkerque11 Dec · Ligue 2win 32%
- at Reims2 Jan · Ligue 2win 17%
- vs Guingamp15 Jan · Ligue 2win 35%
- vs PAU22 Jan · Ligue 2win 35%
Montpellier
- vs Nantes4 Dec · Ligue 2win 54%
- at Sochaux11 Dec · Ligue 2win 48%
- vs Guingamp2 Jan · Ligue 2win 53%
- vs Clermont Foot15 Jan · Ligue 2win 53%
- at Grenoble22 Jan · Ligue 2win 47%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.