Lyon
vs
Le Havre
Ligue 1 prediction
The model makes it 65% Lyon, 19% draw, 16% Le Havre — fair odds of 1.54, 5.26 and 6.25. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (10%).
Expected goals: Lyon 2.39, Le Havre 1.14.
Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 68%, under 2.5: 32%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Head-to-head: Lyon vs Le Havre
- 15 March 2026Le Havre 0–0 LyonLigue 1
- 14 December 2025Lyon 1–0 Le HavreLigue 1
- 16 March 2025Lyon 4–2 Le HavreLigue 1
- 20 October 2024Le Havre 0–4 LyonLigue 1
- 14 January 2024Le Havre 3–1 LyonLigue 1
- 17 September 2023Lyon 0–0 Le HavreLigue 1
The two sides
Lyon carry a model rating of 6.92 against 6.7 for Le Havre. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Lyon L-W.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.39 goals for Lyon and 1.14 for Le Havre. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Lyon rate 1.10 in attack and 0.96 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Le Havre rate 0.85 and 1.15.
That points to 68% for over two and a half goals and 62% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (8%), 2-0 (8%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 350 correct results out of 734 settled predictions (48%), with 70 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Lyon the highest probability at 65%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.39 expected goals for Lyon against 1.14 for Le Havre. Lyon's attack/defence rating is 1.1/0.96 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.85/1.15 for Le Havre.