Wieczysta Kraków vs Lech Poznan Ekstraklasa prediction & result
Final score: Wieczysta Kraków 1-2 Lech Poznan.
Before kick-off the model made it 20% Wieczysta Kraków, 17% draw, 63% Lech Poznan — fair odds of 5.00, 5.88 and 1.59. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Lech Poznan at 63% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 630 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Wieczysta Kraków vs Lech Poznan
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Antoni MikułkoG
- 17Kamil DankowskiD
- 15Aleksandar DjermanovicD
- 16Antonio MilićD
- 27Matúš VojtkoD
- 8Ben LedermanM
- 20Mikkel MaigaardM
- 12Lucas PiazónM
- 10Tobias ChristensenM
- 7Lisandro SemedoF
- 88Christopher LungoyiF
- 26Nikola ČavlinaG
- 55Duje DujmovićD
- 33Kamil PestkaD
- 13Kacper ZagrodzkiD
- 44Dawid SzymonowiczD
- 24Mateusz WieteskaD
- 23Miguel Villar MikiM
- 11Nikola KneževićM
- 97Tobiasz MrasM
- 1Mateusz LisG
- 2Joel PereiraD
- 72Mateusz SkrzypczakD
- 27Wojciech MońkaD
- 4João MoutinhoD
- 43Antoni KozubalM
- 24Filip JagiełłoM
- 10Patrik WålemarkM
- 17Allahyar SayyadmaneshM
- 77Luis PalmaM
- 7Yannick AgneroF
- 21Pablo RodríguezM
- 31Wiktor ObremskiG
- 41Bartosz MrozekG
- 59Terry YegbeD
- 15Michal GurgulD
- 20Robert GumnyD
- 22Radosław MurawskiM
- 23Gisli ThordarsonM
- 11Daniel HåkansM
Form going into Wieczysta Kraków vs Lech Poznan
Wieczysta Kraków
- L1-2away to Radomiak Radom24 July 2026
Lech Poznan
- L1-4Aarhus29 July 2026
- D0-0Cracovia Krakow25 July 2026
- W4-1away to Aarhus21 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Wieczysta Kraków | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 15 | -6 | 4 |
| 3 | Lech Poznan | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Wieczysta Kraków vs Lech Poznan
- 1 August 2026Wieczysta Kraków 1–2 Lech PoznanEkstraklasa
Leading scorers: Wieczysta Kraków and Lech Poznan
Wieczysta Kraków
- T. Christensen3 goals
Lech Poznan
- A. Sayyadmanesh4 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.