Wieczysta Kraków
vs
Lech Poznan
The model makes it 20% Wieczysta Kraków, 17% draw, 63% Lech Poznan — fair odds of 5.00, 5.88 and 1.59. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (7%).
Expected goals: Wieczysta Kraków 1.62, Lech Poznan 2.89.
Both teams to score: 76%. Over 2.5 goals: 83%, under 2.5: 17%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Lech Poznan the highest probability at 63%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Wieczysta Kraków against 2.89 for Lech Poznan. Wieczysta Kraków's attack/defence rating is 0.76/2.24 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.92/1.13 for Lech Poznan.