Monza
vs
Napoli
Serie A prediction
Our model says: Monza 1–2 Napoli
The model makes it 17% Monza, 22% draw, 61% Napoli — fair odds of 5.88, 4.55 and 1.64. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (10%).
Expected goals: Monza 1.02, Napoli 2.32.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 65%, under 2.5: 35%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Napoli are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
The full preview, with the complete head-to-head record →
Key facts
- Monza are 16th on 4 points from 6 games; Napoli are 8th on 10 points from 6 games — Serie A.
- Monza have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat away to Lazio.
- Napoli are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 3-0 win at home to Frosinone.
- Last 6 meetings: Napoli 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 19 April 2025, ended Monza 0–1 Napoli.
More Serie A predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Monza vs Napoli
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Napoli at 61% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Monza vs Napoli
Monza
- L1-3away to Lazio11 October 2026
- W2-1Sassuolo18 September 2026
- L2-3away to Lecce13 September 2026
- D1-1away to Parma6 September 2026
- L2-3Udinese29 August 2026
Napoli
- W3-0Frosinone10 October 2026
- D1-1away to Fiorentina20 September 2026
- W1-0Bologna13 September 2026
- L2-3away to Inter5 September 2026
- L1-2Como30 August 2026
What these results say
- Monza scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Monza conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Monza.
- Napoli scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Monza | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 15 | -6 | 4 |
| 8 | Napoli | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 6 | +4 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Monza vs Napoli
- 19 April 2025Monza 0–1 NapoliSerie A
- 29 September 2024Napoli 2–0 MonzaSerie A
- 7 April 2024Monza 2–4 NapoliSerie A
- 29 December 2023Napoli 0–0 MonzaSerie A
- 14 May 2023Monza 2–0 NapoliSerie A
- 21 August 2022Napoli 4–0 MonzaSerie A
Leading scorers: Monza and Napoli
Monza
GoalsAssists
- Gustavo Varela40
Napoli
GoalsAssists
- K. De Bruyne31
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Monza carry a model rating of 6.72 against 7.17 for Napoli. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.02 goals for Monza and 2.32 for Napoli. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Monza rate 1.05 in attack and 1.40 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Napoli rate 1.32 and 0.70.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Monza a 0% chance of the title and Napoli 4.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Napoli the highest probability at 61%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Monza against 2.32 for Napoli. Monza's attack/defence rating is 1.05/1.4 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.32/0.7 for Napoli.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Monza at home · Napoli away
League matches only, Serie A, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
MonzaNapoli
Monza are 15th after 6 Serie A matches (between 14th and 20th so far); Napoli are 6th after 6 (between 2nd and 10th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie A matches this season: Monza 6, Napoli 6.
Napoli score most often in the 16–30 minute window (3 goals); Monza have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Monza
- at Bologna31 Oct · Serie Awin 27%
- vs Atalanta8 Nov · Serie Awin 22%
- vs Fiorentina23 Nov · Serie Awin 32%
Napoli
- at Juventus1 Nov · Serie Awin 33%
- at FC Porto4 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 22%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.