Lyngby
vs
FC Midtjylland
Superliga prediction
The model makes it 62% Lyngby, 19% draw, 19% FC Midtjylland — fair odds of 1.61, 5.26 and 5.26. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Lyngby 2.53, FC Midtjylland 1.35.
Both teams to score: 69%. Over 2.5 goals: 74%, under 2.5: 26%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Lyngby
- L0-2away to Randers FC9 August 2026
- D2-2Aarhus1 August 2026
- L2-3away to FC Copenhagen26 July 2026
FC Midtjylland
- W2-1AC Horsens2 August 2026
- W3-2away to Sonderjyske26 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Superliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Lyngby | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 1 |
| 2 | FC Midtjylland | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Lyngby
No league goals recorded yet.
FC Midtjylland
- V. Byskov1 goals2 assists
- Julius Emefile1 goals
- F. Etim1 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Lyngby carry a model rating of 6.74 against 6.56 for FC Midtjylland. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Lyngby L-D-L; FC Midtjylland W-W.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.53 goals for Lyngby and 1.35 for FC Midtjylland. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Lyngby rate 1.08 in attack and 1.40 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FC Midtjylland rate 0.69 and 1.24.
That points to 74% for over two and a half goals and 69% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (9%), 3-1 (8%), 1-1 (7%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour FC Midtjylland, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Lyngby the highest probability at 62%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.53 expected goals for Lyngby against 1.35 for FC Midtjylland. Lyngby's attack/defence rating is 1.08/1.4 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.69/1.24 for FC Midtjylland.