Brann vs Rosenborg Eliteserien prediction & result
Final score: Brann 3-2 Rosenborg.
Before kick-off the model made it 38% Brann, 23% draw, 39% Rosenborg — fair odds of 2.63, 4.35 and 2.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Rosenborg at 39% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Brann vs Rosenborg
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1M. DyngelandG
- 21D. De RoeveD
- 3F. KnudsenD
- 23T. PedersenD
- 17J. SoltvedtD
- 25N. WassbergM
- 18J. SorensenM
- 8F. MyhreM
- 19E. GudmundssonF
- 29N. HolmF
- 9N. CastroF
- 12S. NilsenG
- 20V. DragsnesD
- 10K. M. IngasonF
- 6D. MbackeD
- 11B. FinneF
- 16K. EriksenM
- 22S. MagnussonF
- 32M. HaalandM
- 43B. HaugenM
- 1L. WahlstedtG
- 22J. SvenssonD
- 4M. K. CeideD
- 21T. NemcikD
- 19A. PereiraD
- 17M. BomholtM
- 10O. SelnaesM
- 8I. FossumM
- 29D. DurisF
- 18A. ChiakhaF
- 35E. K. CeideF
- 12R. SandbergG
- 15J. MortensenD
- 14J. Reitan-SundeF
- 30M. SoboczynskiF
- 16A. F. WitryD
- 25J. BakkeM
- 11N. SahsahF
- 3T. DahlD
- 5H. VoldenD
Form going into Brann vs Rosenborg
Brann
All competitions we cover
- W3-1Universitatea Cluj30 July 2026
- L2-3Valerenga26 July 2026
- D2-2away to Universitatea Cluj23 July 2026
- W2-1away to Molde18 July 2026
Rosenborg
All competitions we cover
- W4-0Fredrikstad27 July 2026
- W3-0away to Start18 July 2026
What these results say
- Brann scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Brann conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Brann had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eliteserien table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Brann | 24 | 9 | 2 | 13 | 42 | 40 | +2 | 29 |
| 4 | Rosenborg | 24 | 12 | 4 | 8 | 46 | 31 | +15 | 40 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Brann vs Rosenborg
- 25 April 2026Rosenborg 1–1 BrannEliteserien
- 26 October 2025Rosenborg 2–3 BrannEliteserien
- 11 May 2025Brann 0–0 RosenborgEliteserien
- 20 October 2024Rosenborg 1–2 BrannEliteserien
- 4 May 2024Brann 3–0 RosenborgEliteserien
Leading scorers: Brann and Rosenborg
Brann
GoalsAssists
- N. Holm73
Rosenborg
GoalsAssists
- Amin Chiakha154
- E. Ceïde66
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Brann beat Rosenborg 3–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Rosenborg at 39% and given a win for Brann 38%. The goals: N. Castro 14' for Brann, A. Chiakha (penalty) 62' for Rosenborg, I. Fossum 67' for Rosenborg, K. M. Ingason 75' for Brann, K. Eriksen 90' for Brann. On expected goals it finished 0.76–1.94.