2 August 2026, 17:15 UTC

Brann vs Rosenborg Eliteserien prediction & result

Brann Stadion, Bergen
Full time3 – 2

Final score: Brann 3-2 Rosenborg.

Before kick-off the model made it 38% Brann, 23% draw, 39% Rosenborg — fair odds of 2.63, 4.35 and 2.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Rosenborg at 39% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Brann5%Draw90%Rosenborg5%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

2'
E. K. Ceide
⚽N. Castroassist: N. Wassberg
14'
59'
A. Chiakha
62'
⚽A. Chiakha (pen)
67'
⚽I. Fossumassist: J. Svensson
N. Wassberg
68'
T. Pedersen
68'
68'
🔁D. Durisout: J. Reitan-Sunde
68'
🔁J. Svenssonout: A. F. Witry
🔁E. Gudmundssonout: K. M. Ingason
69'
🔁N. Wassbergout: K. Eriksen
69'
73'
🔁I. Fossumout: J. Bakke
⚽K. M. Ingasonassist: K. Eriksen
75'
78'
A. Pereira
N. Castro
78'
85'
🔁O. Selnaesout: J. Mortensen
85'
🔁A. Pereiraout: H. Volden
🔁N. Castroout: S. Magnusson
90+5'
⚽K. Eriksenassist: J. Soltvedt
90'

Match stats — Brann vs Rosenborg

52%Possession48%
11Shots14
4On target7
5Corners12
0.76xG1.94

Goals against chances

Brann3 from 0.76 xGmore than the chances were worth
Rosenborg2 from 1.94 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Brann
  • 1M. DyngelandG
  • 21D. De RoeveD
  • 3F. KnudsenD
  • 23T. PedersenD
  • 17J. SoltvedtD
  • 25N. WassbergM
  • 18J. SorensenM
  • 8F. MyhreM
  • 19E. GudmundssonF
  • 29N. HolmF
  • 9N. CastroF
Substitutes
  • 12S. NilsenG
  • 20V. DragsnesD
  • 10K. M. IngasonF
  • 6D. MbackeD
  • 11B. FinneF
  • 16K. EriksenM
  • 22S. MagnussonF
  • 32M. HaalandM
  • 43B. HaugenM
Coach: Eirik Horneland
Rosenborg
  • 1L. WahlstedtG
  • 22J. SvenssonD
  • 4M. K. CeideD
  • 21T. NemcikD
  • 19A. PereiraD
  • 17M. BomholtM
  • 10O. SelnaesM
  • 8I. FossumM
  • 29D. DurisF
  • 18A. ChiakhaF
  • 35E. K. CeideF
Substitutes
  • 12R. SandbergG
  • 15J. MortensenD
  • 14J. Reitan-SundeF
  • 30M. SoboczynskiF
  • 16A. F. WitryD
  • 25J. BakkeM
  • 11N. SahsahF
  • 3T. DahlD
  • 5H. VoldenD
Coach: Freyr Alexandersson

Form going into Brann vs Rosenborg

Brann

  • W3-1Universitatea Cluj30 July 2026
  • L2-3Valerenga26 July 2026
  • D2-2away to Universitatea Cluj23 July 2026
  • W2-1away to Molde18 July 2026

Rosenborg

  • W4-0Fredrikstad27 July 2026
  • W3-0away to Start18 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Eliteserien table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8Brann2082103731+626
6Rosenborg209383629+730

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Brann vs Rosenborg

  • 2 August 2026Brann 3–2 RosenborgEliteserien
  • 25 April 2026Rosenborg 1–1 BrannEliteserien
  • 26 October 2025Rosenborg 2–3 BrannEliteserien
  • 11 May 2025Brann 0–0 RosenborgEliteserien
  • 20 October 2024Rosenborg 1–2 BrannEliteserien
  • 4 May 2024Brann 3–0 RosenborgEliteserien

Leading scorers: Brann and Rosenborg

Brann

  • N. Holm6 goals2 assists

Rosenborg

  • Amin Chiakha12 goals3 assists
  • E. Ceïde5 goals5 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.