Hradec Králové vs Baník Ostrava Czech Liga prediction & result
Final score: Hradec Králové 2-1 Baník Ostrava.
Before kick-off the model made it 38% Hradec Králové, 33% draw, 29% Baník Ostrava — fair odds of 2.63, 3.03 and 3.45.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Hradec Králové at 38%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Hradec Králové vs Baník Ostrava
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 12Adam ZadražilG
- 7Jakub UhrinčaťD
- 5Filip ČihákD
- 25František ČechD
- 2David LudvicekM
- 16Vladimír DaridaM
- 9Matěj ValentaM
- 26Daniel HorákM
- 24Abdullahi UmarF
- 10Mick van BurenF
- 19Tom SlončíkF
- 11Samuel DancákM
- 17Ondřej MihálikF
- 27Daniel TrubačM
- 6Elione Fernandes NetoM
- 1Patrik VízekG
- 20Matyas VagnerG
- 22Stepan PonikelskyM
- 77Lucas KubrM
- 18Marko RegžaF
- 23Martin JedličkaG
- 44Yevgeniy SkybaD
- 37Matěj ChalušD
- 42Jiri MicekD
- 34Abdullahi BeweneM
- 83Roan NoghaM
- 18David PlankaM
- 99Vlasiy SinyavskiyM
- 21Michal KohútF
- 28Filip KubalaF
- 12Abdallah GningF
- 8Aboubacar TraoreM
- 95Daniel HolzerM
- 22Vit SkrkonF
- 55Artúr MusákM
- 7Dantaye GilbertM
- 1Viktor BudinskýG
- 17Michal FrydrychD
- 6Karel PojeznýD
- 16Maksym DiachukD
Form going into Hradec Králové vs Baník Ostrava
Hradec Králové
All competitions we cover
- L0-1Beşiktaş6 August 2026
- D0-0away to Bohemians 19052 August 2026
- W3-1Tromso30 July 2026
- W2-1Pardubice26 July 2026
- W1-0away to Tromso23 July 2026
Baník Ostrava
All competitions we cover
- L0-4Slavia Praha1 August 2026
- W1-0away to Zlin25 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Czech Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Hradec Králové | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 17 | 18 | -1 | 18 |
| 13 | Baník Ostrava | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 10 | 23 | -13 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Hradec Králové vs Baník Ostrava
- 14 March 2026Hradec Králové 1–0 Baník OstravaCzech Liga
- 4 March 2026Hradec Králové 0–0 Baník OstravaCup
- 19 October 2025Baník Ostrava 0–1 Hradec KrálovéCzech Liga
- 8 December 2024Hradec Králové 0–1 Baník OstravaCzech Liga
- 11 August 2024Baník Ostrava 1–0 Hradec KrálovéCzech Liga
Leading scorers: Hradec Králové and Baník Ostrava
Hradec Králové
GoalsAssists
- T. Čvančara41
- T. Slončík40
Baník Ostrava
No player in Czech Liga's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Hradec Králové beat Baník Ostrava 2–1. The model had made a win for Hradec Králové its most likely outcome, at 38%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Tom Slončík 27' for Hradec Králové, Matěj Chaluš 53' for Baník Ostrava, Tom Slončík 63' for Hradec Králové. Sent off: Yevgeniy Skyba (Baník Ostrava) 43'. On expected goals it finished 2.38–0.80.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.