Hradec Králové
vs
Baník Ostrava
The model makes it 38% Hradec Králové, 33% draw, 29% Baník Ostrava — fair odds of 2.63, 3.03 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Hradec Králové 1.06, Baník Ostrava 0.89.
Both teams to score: 39%. Over 2.5 goals: 31%, under 2.5: 69%.
Model confidence: Low.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Hradec Králové
- D0-0away to Bohemians 19052 August 2026
- W2-1Pardubice26 July 2026
Baník Ostrava
- L0-4Slavia Praha1 August 2026
- W1-0away to Zlin25 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Czech Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Hradec Králové | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 4 |
| 9 | Baník Ostrava | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Hradec Králové vs Baník Ostrava
- 14 March 2026Hradec Králové 1–0 Baník OstravaCzech Liga
- 4 March 2026Hradec Králové 0–0 Baník OstravaCup
- 19 October 2025Baník Ostrava 0–1 Hradec KrálovéCzech Liga
- 8 December 2024Hradec Králové 0–1 Baník OstravaCzech Liga
- 11 August 2024Baník Ostrava 1–0 Hradec KrálovéCzech Liga
- 9 December 2023Hradec Králové 2–3 Baník OstravaCzech Liga
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Hradec Králové carry a model rating of 6.83 against 6.92 for Baník Ostrava. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Hradec Králové W-D; Baník Ostrava W-L.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 1.06 goals for Hradec Králové and 0.89 for Baník Ostrava. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Hradec Králové rate 0.78 in attack and 0.85 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Baník Ostrava rate 0.75 and 0.72.
That points to 31% for over two and a half goals and 39% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 0-0 (15%), 1-0 (14%), 1-1 (14%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 211 correct results out of 450 settled predictions (47%), with 45 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Hradec Králové the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Hradec Králové against 0.89 for Baník Ostrava. Hradec Králové's attack/defence rating is 0.78/0.85 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.75/0.72 for Baník Ostrava.