Mjallby AIF
vs
Sirius
Allsvenskan prediction
The model makes it 37% Mjallby AIF, 23% draw, 40% Sirius — fair odds of 2.70, 4.35 and 2.50. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Mjallby AIF 1.70, Sirius 1.79.
Both teams to score: 69%. Over 2.5 goals: 68%, under 2.5: 32%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Mjallby AIF
- L0-1IF Elfsborg8 August 2026
- L1-2away to Kalmar FF25 July 2026
- D0-0Vasteras SK FK17 July 2026
- L1-2AIK Stockholm11 July 2026
- D4-4away to Sirius3 July 2026
Sirius
- W2-0away to Halmstad3 August 2026
- W4-1IFK Goteborg26 July 2026
- W3-1away to IF Elfsborg19 July 2026
- W2-1away to IF Brommapojkarna12 July 2026
- D4-4Mjallby AIF3 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Allsvenskan table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Mjallby AIF | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 20 | 20 | 0 | 17 |
| 1 | Sirius | 15 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 42 | 17 | +25 | 41 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Mjallby AIF
No league goals recorded yet.
Sirius
- R. Ure15 goals2 assists
- I. Bjerkebo11 goals5 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Mjallby AIF carry a model rating of 6.55 against 6.73 for Sirius. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Mjallby AIF D-L-D-L-L; Sirius D-W-W-W-W.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.70 goals for Mjallby AIF and 1.79 for Sirius. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Mjallby AIF rate 0.75 in attack and 1.36 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Sirius rate 0.94 and 1.20.
That points to 68% for over two and a half goals and 69% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (8%), 2-1 (8%).
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Mjallby AIF a 0% chance of the title and Sirius 98.4%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sirius the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.7 expected goals for Mjallby AIF against 1.79 for Sirius. Mjallby AIF's attack/defence rating is 0.75/1.36 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.94/1.2 for Sirius.