San Lorenzo
vs
Union Santa Fe
Liga Profesional Argentina prediction
The model makes it 47% San Lorenzo, 25% draw, 28% Union Santa Fe — fair odds of 2.13, 4.00 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: San Lorenzo 1.74, Union Santa Fe 1.32.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
San Lorenzo
- L0-1away to Central Cordoba de Santiago4 August 2026
- W1-0Gimnasia Mendoza28 July 2026
- L0-1away to Lanus26 July 2026
- L1-2Independiente2 May 2026
- W1-0away to Platense25 April 2026
Union Santa Fe
- W2-1Lanus6 August 2026
- L0-2away to Gimnasia Mendoza1 August 2026
- D2-2away to Platense25 July 2026
- L0-2away to Belgrano Cordoba12 May 2026
- W2-1away to Independiente Rivadavia10 May 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | San Lorenzo | 16 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 22 |
| 8 | Union Santa Fe | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 24 | 20 | +4 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
San Lorenzo
No league goals recorded yet.
Union Santa Fe
- C. Tarragona9 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
San Lorenzo carry a model rating of 6.54 against 6.54 for Union Santa Fe. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): San Lorenzo W-L-L-W-L; Union Santa Fe W-L-D-L-W.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.74 goals for San Lorenzo and 1.32 for Union Santa Fe. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
San Lorenzo rate 0.64 in attack and 1.22 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Union Santa Fe rate 0.77 and 1.44.
That points to 59% for over two and a half goals and 61% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (8%).
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives San Lorenzo a 1.3% chance of the title and Union Santa Fe 2.7%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives San Lorenzo the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.74 expected goals for San Lorenzo against 1.32 for Union Santa Fe. San Lorenzo's attack/defence rating is 0.64/1.22 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.77/1.44 for Union Santa Fe.