San Lorenzo vs Union Santa Fe Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result
Final score: San Lorenzo 1-0 Union Santa Fe.
Before kick-off the model made it 43% San Lorenzo, 24% draw, 33% Union Santa Fe — fair odds of 2.33, 4.17 and 3.03.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
San Lorenzo at 43%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — San Lorenzo vs Union Santa Fe
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 25J. DevecchiG
- 54N. BlancoD
- 2D. ArboledaD
- 19E. AmorD
- 3T. Rodriguez PaganoD
- 22J. AlvarezM
- 5I. PerruzziM
- 24N. TripichioM
- 11M. RealiM
- 9A. CuelloF
- 29R. AuzmendiF
- 20F. AltamiranoG
- 6M. De RitisD
- 42F. LorenzonD
- 16G. CorujoD
- 35A. CordobaD
- 27M. RioM
- 62G. AlassiaM
- 15M. CardilloM
- 13J. RattalinoM
- 21M. MansillaG
- 35L. VargasD
- 2M. RodriguezD
- 26J. LuduenaD
- 12B. PittonD
- 5L. MenossiM
- 20J. PalaciosM
- 17J. MosqueiraM
- 10I. MalcorraM
- 19M. EstigarribiaF
- 25C. TarragonaF
- 40L. MeuliG
- 15J. PintadoD
- 36M. AimarD
- 18L. AyalaD
- 44T. FagioliD
- 22B. CuelloM
- 8E. GiacconeM
- 46S. GrellaM
- 11M. Luna DialeM
Form going into San Lorenzo vs Union Santa Fe
San Lorenzo
All competitions we cover
- L0-2Huracan9 August 2026
- L0-1away to Central Cordoba de Santiago4 August 2026
- W1-0Gimnasia Mendoza28 July 2026
- L0-1away to Lanus26 July 2026
Union Santa Fe
All competitions we cover
- L1-2Central Cordoba de Santiago11 August 2026
- W2-1Lanus6 August 2026
- L0-2away to Gimnasia Mendoza1 August 2026
- D2-2away to Platense25 July 2026
What these results say
- Every one of these 4 matches for San Lorenzo had two goals or fewer.
- San Lorenzo failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- San Lorenzo failed to score in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Union Santa Fe conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Union Santa Fe failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Union Santa Fe scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | San Lorenzo | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 9 | 16 | -7 | 19 |
| 9 | Union Santa Fe | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 24 | 24 | 0 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: San Lorenzo vs Union Santa Fe
- 14 February 2026Union Santa Fe 0–0 San LorenzoLiga Profesional Argentina
- 15 June 2024Union Santa Fe 2–1 San LorenzoLiga Profesional Argentina
- 5 February 2024San Lorenzo 0–0 Union Santa FeCopa de la Liga Profesional
- 4 September 2023Union Santa Fe 1–1 San LorenzoCopa de la Liga Profesional
- 25 February 2023San Lorenzo 1–0 Union Santa FeLiga Profesional Argentina
- 20 July 2022San Lorenzo 2–2 Union Santa FeLiga Profesional Argentina
Leading scorers: San Lorenzo and Union Santa Fe
San Lorenzo
GoalsAssists
- R. Auzmendi72
Union Santa Fe
GoalsAssists
- C. Tarragona172
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
San Lorenzo beat Union Santa Fe 1–0. The model had made a win for San Lorenzo its most likely outcome, at 43%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goal: R. Auzmendi 64' for San Lorenzo. On expected goals it finished 1.08–0.19.