IF Elfsborg
vs
Vasteras SK FK
Allsvenskan prediction
The model makes it 59% IF Elfsborg, 19% draw, 22% Vasteras SK FK — fair odds of 1.69, 5.26 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (8%).
Expected goals: IF Elfsborg 2.55, Vasteras SK FK 1.54.
Both teams to score: 73%. Over 2.5 goals: 78%, under 2.5: 22%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
IF Elfsborg
- W1-0away to Mjallby AIF8 August 2026
- W2-1away to Malmo FF26 July 2026
- L1-3Sirius19 July 2026
- L0-1away to Gais12 July 2026
- L1-2Hammarby FF5 July 2026
Vasteras SK FK
- L0-6away to Djurgardens IF3 August 2026
- W2-0Orgryte IS24 July 2026
- D0-0away to Mjallby AIF17 July 2026
- W2-0Degerfors IF12 July 2026
- W3-1away to Halmstad4 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Allsvenskan table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | IF Elfsborg | 16 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 21 | 18 | +3 | 24 |
| 8 | Vasteras SK FK | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 24 | 29 | -5 | 22 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
IF Elfsborg
No league goals recorded yet.
Vasteras SK FK
- M. Ladefoged9 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
IF Elfsborg carry a model rating of 6.43 against 6.35 for Vasteras SK FK. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): IF Elfsborg L-L-L-W-W; Vasteras SK FK W-W-D-W-L.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.55 goals for IF Elfsborg and 1.54 for Vasteras SK FK. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
IF Elfsborg rate 0.64 in attack and 1.49 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Vasteras SK FK rate 0.74 and 2.11.
That points to 78% for over two and a half goals and 73% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (8%), 3-1 (7%), 1-1 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives IF Elfsborg the highest probability at 59%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.55 expected goals for IF Elfsborg against 1.54 for Vasteras SK FK. IF Elfsborg's attack/defence rating is 0.64/1.49 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.74/2.11 for Vasteras SK FK.