Djurgardens IF
vs
AIK Stockholm
Allsvenskan prediction
The model makes it 73% Djurgardens IF, 16% draw, 11% AIK Stockholm — fair odds of 1.37, 6.25 and 9.09. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Djurgardens IF 2.78, AIK Stockholm 1.06.
Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 74%, under 2.5: 26%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Djurgardens IF
- W6-0Vasteras SK FK3 August 2026
- W1-0away to Degerfors IF25 July 2026
- D0-0away to Orgryte IS20 July 2026
- W3-0Halmstad13 July 2026
- W4-2away to BK Hacken6 July 2026
AIK Stockholm
- W4-3away to Orgryte IS8 August 2026
- L0-3Orgryte IS2 August 2026
- D0-0away to BK Hacken27 July 2026
- W2-0Gais18 July 2026
- W2-1away to Mjallby AIF11 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Allsvenskan table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Djurgardens IF | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 33 | 15 | +18 | 26 |
| 5 | AIK Stockholm | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 22 | 24 | -2 | 25 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Djurgardens IF
- K. Lien10 goals3 assists
AIK Stockholm
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Djurgardens IF carry a model rating of 6.47 against 6.14 for AIK Stockholm. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Djurgardens IF W-W-D-W-W; AIK Stockholm W-W-D-L-W.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.78 goals for Djurgardens IF and 1.06 for AIK Stockholm. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Djurgardens IF rate 0.69 in attack and 1.49 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; AIK Stockholm rate 0.51 and 2.13.
That points to 74% for over two and a half goals and 62% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (9%), 2-0 (8%), 3-1 (8%).
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Djurgardens IF a 1% chance of the title and AIK Stockholm 0%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Djurgardens IF the highest probability at 73%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.78 expected goals for Djurgardens IF against 1.06 for AIK Stockholm. Djurgardens IF's attack/defence rating is 0.69/1.49 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.51/2.13 for AIK Stockholm.