Regular Season - 17 · 16 August 2026, 12:00 UTC

IF Brommapojkarna vs Orgryte IS Allsvenskan prediction

Grimsta IP, Stockholm

The model makes it 53% IF Brommapojkarna, 25% draw, 22% Orgryte IS — fair odds of 1.89, 4.00 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Expected goals: IF Brommapojkarna 1.74, Orgryte IS 1.04.

Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.

Model confidence: High.

Model insights

54%
Both teams to score
53%
Over 2.5 goals
47%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines1-1 12%1-0 10%2-1 10%

Form going into this match

IF Brommapojkarna

  • L1-2Malmo FF2 August 2026
  • D1-1Hammarby FF26 July 2026
  • L1-2away to IFK Goteborg17 July 2026
  • L1-2Sirius12 July 2026
  • D1-1Gais6 July 2026

Orgryte IS

  • L3-4AIK Stockholm8 August 2026
  • W3-0away to AIK Stockholm2 August 2026
  • L0-2away to Vasteras SK FK24 July 2026
  • D0-0Djurgardens IF20 July 2026
  • W4-3BK Hacken11 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.

Allsvenskan table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
12IF Brommapojkarna154562024-417
15Orgryte IS163492037-1713

Where the two sides stand. Full tables

Leading scorers

IF Brommapojkarna

No league goals recorded yet.

Orgryte IS

  • N. Christoffersson8 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Two sides the ratings cannot separate

IF Brommapojkarna carry a model rating of 6.24 against 6.14 for Orgryte IS. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.

A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

Recent form (most recent last): IF Brommapojkarna D-L-L-D-L; Orgryte IS W-D-L-W-L.

What the model expects

Under the hood the model expects 1.74 goals for IF Brommapojkarna and 1.04 for Orgryte IS. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.

IF Brommapojkarna rate 0.50 in attack and 1.69 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Orgryte IS rate 0.44 and 1.84.

That points to 53% for over two and a half goals and 54% for both teams to score.

The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (12%), 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (10%).

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives IF Brommapojkarna the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.74 expected goals for IF Brommapojkarna against 1.04 for Orgryte IS. IF Brommapojkarna's attack/defence rating is 0.5/1.69 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.44/1.84 for Orgryte IS.