17 July 2026

Mirassol vs Gremio Serie A prediction & result

Full time2 – 1

Final score: Mirassol 2-1 Gremio.

Before kick-off the model made it 45% Mirassol, 29% draw, 26% Gremio — fair odds of 2.22, 3.45 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Mirassol at 45% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Bruno Santosassist: Igor Formiga
16'
•Denilson
37'
Denilson
38'
⚽Edson Cariocaassist: Denilson
40'
41'
Walter Kannemann
46'
🔁F. Amuzuout: Willian
46'
🔁Gabriel Mecout: M. Braithwaite
46'
🔁Caio Paulistaout: Pedro Gabriel
46'
🔁M. Villasantiout: L. Perez
65'
Gustavo Martins
🔁Edson Cariocaout: Carlos Eduardo
72'
🔁Bruno Santosout: Andre Luis
75'
🔁Japaout: Shaylon
76'
77'
⚽Carlos Viniciusassist: C. Pavon
79'
Leonel Pérez
80'
🔁J. Nardoniout: Riquelme
🔁Alessonout: Fernandinho
83'
🔁Denilsonout: Chico Kim
83'
86'
🔁Teteout: Marcos Rocha

Match stats — Mirassol vs Gremio

45%Possession55%
14Shots9
3On target4
5Corners4
1.38xG0.52

Goals against chances

Mirassol2 from 1.38 xGmore than the chances were worth
Gremio1 from 0.52 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Mirassol 4-3-3
  • 22WalterG
  • 32Igor FormigaD
  • 34João VictorD
  • 44Gabriel KnesowitschD
  • 6ReinaldoD
  • 8DenilsonM
  • 21José AldoM
  • 5JapaM
  • 95Edson CariocaF
  • 30Bruno SantosF
  • 77AlessonF
Substitutes
  • 96Carlos EduardoF
  • 9André LuisF
  • 7ShaylonM
  • 10ChicoM
  • 17FernandinhoF
  • 1GeorgemyG
  • 90ThomazellaG
  • 2Lucas OliveiraD
  • 18EliasD
Coach: Guanaes Rafael
Gremio 4-3-3
  • 1WevertonG
  • 7Cristian PavónD
  • 6Gustavo MartinsD
  • 4Walter KannemannD
  • 38Caio PaulistaD
  • 5Juan NardoniM
  • 20Mathias VillasantiM
  • 37Gabriel MecM
  • 21TetêF
  • 95Carlos ViníciusF
  • 9Francis AmuzuF
Substitutes
  • 54Pedro GabrielD
  • 10WillianM
  • 33Leonel PérezM
  • 22Martin BraithwaiteF
  • 65Riquelme FreitasM
  • 14Marcos RochaD
  • 12Gabriel GrandoG
  • 43Luis GuedesD
  • 3Wagner LeonardoD
Coach: Luis Castro

Serie A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
15Mirassol2778123142-1129
16Gremio2677122835-728

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Mirassol vs Gremio

  • 17 July 2026Mirassol 2–1 GremioSerie A
  • 13 September 2025Gremio 0–1 MirassolSerie A
  • 16 April 2025Mirassol 4–1 GremioSerie A
  • 2 March 2022Mirassol 3–2 GremioCopa Do Brasil

Leading scorers: Mirassol and Gremio

Mirassol

No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 31 league goals as a side.

Gremio

  • Carlos Vinícius10 goals1 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.