Metz
vs
Saint Etienne
Ligue 2 prediction
Our model says: Metz 2–1 Saint Etienne
The model makes it 49% Metz, 26% draw, 25% Saint Etienne — fair odds of 2.04, 3.85 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Metz 2.09, Saint Etienne 1.17.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 63%, under 2.5: 37%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Metz vs Saint Etienne
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 8 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 4 | 3 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Metz wins, grey are draws, red are Saint Etienne wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Metz at 49% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Metz vs Saint Etienne
Metz
- L0-1away to RED Star FC 9314 September 2026
- W4-1Rodez5 September 2026
- D1-1away to Annecy29 August 2026
- D1-1Laval22 August 2026
- D0-0away to Grenoble14 August 2026
Saint Etienne
- L1-2away to Dunkerque12 September 2026
- W3-1Montpellier5 September 2026
- W3-2away to Dijon31 August 2026
- W4-0Grenoble22 August 2026
- W3-1Clermont Foot14 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Metz | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 9 |
| 1 | Saint Etienne | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 6 | +11 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Metz vs Saint Etienne
- 2 June 2024Metz 2–2 Saint EtienneLigue 1
- 30 May 2024Saint Etienne 2–1 MetzLigue 1
- 22 April 2023Saint Etienne 1–3 MetzLigue 2
- 7 November 2022Metz 3–2 Saint EtienneLigue 2
- 6 March 2022Saint Etienne 1–0 MetzLigue 1
- 30 October 2021Metz 1–1 Saint EtienneLigue 1
Leading scorers: Metz and Saint Etienne
Metz
- P. Fall5 goals
Saint Etienne
- I. Cardona4 goals4 assists
- T. Ballo4 goals2 assists
- A. Boakye3 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Metz carry a model rating of 6.65 against 6.51 for Saint Etienne. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.09 goals for Metz and 1.17 for Saint Etienne. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Metz rate 0.85 in attack and 1.28 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Saint Etienne rate 0.76 and 1.51.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Saint Etienne, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Metz a 0% chance of the title and Saint Etienne 97.9%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Metz the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.09 expected goals for Metz against 1.17 for Saint Etienne. Metz's attack/defence rating is 0.85/1.28 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.76/1.51 for Saint Etienne.