Metz vs Saint Etienne Ligue 2 prediction & result
Final score: Metz 2-2 Saint Etienne.
Before kick-off the model made it 49% Metz, 26% draw, 25% Saint Etienne — fair odds of 2.04, 3.85 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Metz at 49% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Metz vs Saint Etienne
Line-ups
- 1J. FischerG
- 70B. SarrD
- 42C. DevenishD
- 5J. RuizD
- 3F. MiguelD
- 8J. DeminguetM
- 18B. MunongoM
- 9G. AbuashviliM
- 10T. SavanierM
- 38H. KadamaniM
- 11P. FallF
- 4U. MboulaD
- 6N. MendyM
- 88A. Agne BaF
- 22N. MbalaF
- 98I. MohamedD
- 21J. PandoreF
- 61P. SyG
- 39B. SongD
- 33Abdourahmane MbodjF
- 30G. LarsonneurG
- 23K. PedroD
- 26J. Le CardinalD
- 18S. NairD
- 11B. OldD
- 20A. BoakyeM
- 6M. BernauerM
- 14Á. CsongvaiM
- 8T. BalloM
- 7I. CardonaF
- 10J. BreumF
- 31N. El JamaliM
- 13João FerreiraD
- 37N. Kasia NkondoD
- 15Chico LambaD
- 1Mamour NdiayeG
- 16T. SvetlinM
- 17J. DuffusF
- 32Adam BaallalM
- 22Z. DavitashviliF
Form going into Metz vs Saint Etienne
Metz
Ligue 2
- L0-1away to RED Star FC 9314 September 2026
Saint Etienne
Ligue 2
- L1-2away to Dunkerque12 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ligue 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Metz | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 16 | 14 | +2 | 14 |
| 1 | Saint Etienne | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 8 | +15 | 25 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Metz vs Saint Etienne
- 2 June 2024Metz 2–2 Saint EtienneLigue 1
- 30 May 2024Saint Etienne 2–1 MetzLigue 1
- 22 April 2023Saint Etienne 1–3 MetzLigue 2
- 7 November 2022Metz 3–2 Saint EtienneLigue 2
- 6 March 2022Saint Etienne 1–0 MetzLigue 1
Leading scorers: Metz and Saint Etienne
Metz
GoalsAssists
- P. Fall80
Saint Etienne
GoalsAssists
- A. Boakye63
- I. Cardona54
- T. Ballo52
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Metz and Saint Etienne drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Metz at 49% and given a draw 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Kevin Pedro 67' for Saint Etienne, Augustine Boakye 71' for Saint Etienne, Abdourahmane Mbodj 79' for Metz, Jessy Deminguet 89' for Metz.
How the call on Metz v Saint Etienne has moved
First published on 5 Sep at 45% / 28% / 27% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 49% / 26% / 25%: the biggest move is Metz's chance of winning, up 4 points.
- Metz win49%▲ +4
- Draw26%▼ −2
- Saint Etienne win25%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.