Kheybar Khorramabad
vs
Esteghlal Khuzestan
Persian Gulf Pro League prediction
Our model says: Kheybar Khorramabad 2–1 Esteghlal Khuzestan
The model makes it 56% Kheybar Khorramabad, 24% draw, 20% Esteghlal Khuzestan — fair odds of 1.79, 4.17 and 5.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (10%).
Expected goals: Kheybar Khorramabad 2.12, Esteghlal Khuzestan 1.07.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 62%, under 2.5: 38%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to Kheybar Khorramabad: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Kheybar Khorramabad are 12th on 8 points from 8 games; Esteghlal Khuzestan are 16th on 6 points from 8 games — Persian Gulf Pro League.
- Kheybar Khorramabad are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Persepolis FC.
- Esteghlal Khuzestan have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to Gol Gohar.
- Last 6 meetings: Kheybar Khorramabad 2 wins to 0, 4 draws; the most recent, 9 December 2025, ended Esteghlal Khuzestan 0–1 Kheybar Khorramabad.
More Persian Gulf Pro League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Kheybar Khorramabad vs Esteghlal Khuzestan
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Kheybar Khorramabad at 56% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Kheybar Khorramabad vs Esteghlal Khuzestan
Kheybar Khorramabad
- D0-0Persepolis FC14 October 2026
- D2-2away to Chadormalu SC9 October 2026
- L0-1away to Nassaji Mazandaran7 September 2026
- W2-0Foolad FC2 September 2026
- D2-2away to Aluminium Arak28 August 2026
Esteghlal Khuzestan
- L0-3away to Gol Gohar8 October 2026
- W1-0Tractor Sazi10 September 2026
- L0-1away to Sepahan FC6 September 2026
- D1-1Chadormalu SC1 September 2026
- D0-0away to Paykan28 August 2026
What these results say
- Kheybar Khorramabad failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Esteghlal Khuzestan failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Esteghlal Khuzestan had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Persian Gulf Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Kheybar Khorramabad | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 8 |
| 16 | Esteghlal Khuzestan | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 12 | -8 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Kheybar Khorramabad
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 9% today
Esteghlal Khuzestan
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 51% today
From our Persian Gulf Pro League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Kheybar Khorramabad vs Esteghlal Khuzestan
- 9 December 2025Esteghlal Khuzestan 0–1 Kheybar KhorramabadPersian Gulf Pro League
- 1 May 2025Esteghlal Khuzestan 0–0 Kheybar KhorramabadPersian Gulf Pro League
- 19 December 2024Kheybar Khorramabad 1–0 Esteghlal KhuzestanPersian Gulf Pro League
- 25 February 2023Esteghlal Khuzestan 0–0 Kheybar KhorramabadAzadegan League
- 28 September 2022Kheybar Khorramabad 1–1 Esteghlal KhuzestanAzadegan League
- 5 March 2022Esteghlal Khuzestan 0–0 Kheybar KhorramabadAzadegan League
The two sides
Kheybar Khorramabad carry a model rating of 6.37 against 6.18 for Esteghlal Khuzestan. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.12 goals for Kheybar Khorramabad and 1.07 for Esteghlal Khuzestan. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Kheybar Khorramabad rate 0.69 in attack and 1.82 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Esteghlal Khuzestan rate 0.49 and 1.89.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Kheybar Khorramabad the highest probability at 56%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.12 expected goals for Kheybar Khorramabad against 1.07 for Esteghlal Khuzestan. Kheybar Khorramabad's attack/defence rating is 0.69/1.82 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.49/1.89 for Esteghlal Khuzestan.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Kheybar Khorramabad at home · Esteghlal Khuzestan away
League matches only, Persian Gulf Pro League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Persian Gulf Pro League matches this season: Kheybar Khorramabad 8, Esteghlal Khuzestan 8.
Kheybar Khorramabad score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Esteghlal Khuzestan have let in 2 there.
Esteghlal Khuzestan score most often in the 61–75 minute window (2 goals); Kheybar Khorramabad have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Kheybar Khorramabad
- at Gol Gohar23 Oct · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 24%
- vs Sepahan FC30 Oct · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 32%
- at Tractor Sazi7 Nov · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 15%
Esteghlal Khuzestan
- vs Shams Azar Qazvin25 Oct · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 37%
- at ZOB Ahan30 Oct · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 25%
- vs Esteghlal FC7 Nov · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 20%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.