Regular Season - 11 · 29 November 2026, 13:30 UTC

Marumo Gallants vs Richards Bay Premier Soccer League prediction

Thohoyandou Stadium, Thohoyandou

Our model says: Marumo Gallants 1–0 Richards Bay

The model makes it 43% Marumo Gallants, 28% draw, 29% Richards Bay — fair odds of 2.33, 3.57 and 3.45.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Expected goals: Marumo Gallants 1.54, Richards Bay 1.18.

Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,958 settled matches.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Marumo Gallants's rating is built from 39 South African Premier Soccer League matches and Richards Bay's from 39, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 546 matches.

Key facts

  • Marumo Gallants are 15th on 5 points from 9 games; Richards Bay are bottom on 3 points from 9 games — Premier Soccer League.
  • Marumo Gallants have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-2 win at home to Siwelele.
  • Richards Bay have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat away to Kruger United.
  • Last 6 meetings: Richards Bay 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 9 May 2026, ended Marumo Gallants 1–1 Richards Bay.

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Marumo Gallants vs Richards Bay

55%
Both teams to score
51%
Over 2.5 goals
49%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Marumo Gallants win Draw Richards Bay win
  1. 1–113%
  2. 1–010%
  3. 2–19%
  4. 2–08%
  5. 0–07%
  6. 0–17%
  7. 1–27%

Scores read Marumo Gallants first; the other scorelines share the remaining 39%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Marumo Gallants at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Marumo Gallants vs Richards Bay

Marumo Gallants

Premier Soccer League

  • W3-2Siwelele30 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Sekhukhune United17 October 2026
  • L0-2Orlando Pirates20 September 2026
  • L0-1away to Amazulu12 September 2026
  • D2-2Polokwane City4 September 2026

Richards Bay

Premier Soccer League

  • L1-3away to Kruger United31 October 2026
  • L1-4Mamelodi Sundowns13 October 2026
  • L2-3Sekhukhune United19 September 2026
  • L1-5away to Milford FC13 September 2026
  • L1-2Amazulu4 September 2026

What these results say

  • Marumo Gallants conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Marumo Gallants failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Richards Bay did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • Richards Bay scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Richards Bay conceded in every one of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Premier Soccer League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
15Marumo Gallants9126917-85
16Richards Bay90361123-123

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Head-to-head: Marumo Gallants vs Richards Bay

  • 9 May 2026Marumo Gallants 1–1 Richards BayPremier Soccer League
  • 9 August 2025Richards Bay 1–2 Marumo GallantsPremier Soccer League
  • 4 February 2025Richards Bay 2–1 Marumo GallantsPremier Soccer League
  • 4 January 2025Marumo Gallants 0–0 Richards BayPremier Soccer League
  • 14 January 2023Marumo Gallants 0–2 Richards BayPremier Soccer League
  • 9 August 2022Richards Bay 0–0 Marumo GallantsPremier Soccer League

Leading scorers: Marumo Gallants and Richards Bay

Marumo Gallants

GoalsAssists

  • M. Ndlovu21

Richards Bay

GoalsAssists

  • N. Xulu50

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Marumo Gallants Richards Bay
0.52 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.58
2.14 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 2.44
1.54 Model expected goals (this match) 1.18

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Marumo Gallants the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Marumo Gallants against 1.18 for Richards Bay. Marumo Gallants's attack/defence rating is 0.52/2.14 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.58/2.44 for Richards Bay.

How the model reaches 43% for Marumo Gallants to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 35% for Marumo Gallants to win. Then home advantage adds 5 points, the level of the two sides adds 2 points, Marumo Gallants's ratings change nothing and Richards Bay's ratings add 1 point, which lands on the published 43%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground35%
  2. Home advantage40%+5
  3. Both sides at this match's level42%+2
  4. Marumo Gallants's ratings42%±0
  5. Richards Bay's ratings43%+1

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

Marumo GallantsRichards Bay
9Matches9
1W 2D 6LRecord0W 3D 6L
9 1.0 per gameGoals scored11 1.2 per game
17 1.9 per gameGoals conceded23 2.6 per game
1 of 9Clean sheets0 of 9
4 of 9Failed to score0 of 9
0 of 1Penalties scored1 of 1
13 1.4 per gameYellow cards9 1.0 per game
1Red cards1
4-2-3-1 3×Usual shape4-1-4-1 2×

Marumo Gallants at home · Richards Bay away

5Played4
1W 2D 2LRecord0W 2D 2L
7–9Goals for – against4–10
1 of 5Clean sheets0 of 4

League matches only, Premier Soccer League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Premier Soccer League matches this season: Marumo Gallants 9, Richards Bay 9.

Marumo Gallants scored 211111
Richards Bay conceded 262515

Marumo Gallants score most often in the 0–15 minute window (2 goals); Richards Bay have let in 2 there.

Richards Bay scored 212124
Marumo Gallants conceded 263421

Richards Bay score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Marumo Gallants have let in 1 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 4 matches, by difficulty

Marumo Gallants

  • vs Chippa United4 Dec · Premier Soccer Leaguewin 35%
  • at Durban City15 Dec · Premier Soccer Leaguewin 25%
  • vs Kaizer Chiefs19 Dec · Premier Soccer Leaguewin 25%
  • at Milford FC8 Jan · Premier Soccer Leaguewin 17%

Richards Bay

  • at TS Galaxy6 Dec · Premier Soccer Leaguewin 28%
  • vs Orlando Pirates16 Dec · Premier Soccer Leaguewin 11%
  • vs Siwelele20 Dec · Premier Soccer Leaguewin 37%
  • at Golden Arrows9 Jan · Premier Soccer Leaguewin 22%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.