Regular Season - 11 · 28 November 2026, 16:00 UTC

Orlando Pirates vs Golden Arrows Premier Soccer League prediction

Orlando Stadium, Johannesburg

Our model says: Orlando Pirates 1–0 Golden Arrows

The model makes it 63% Orlando Pirates, 27% draw, 10% Golden Arrows — fair odds of 1.59, 3.70 and 10.00.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (21%).

Expected goals: Orlando Pirates 1.61, Golden Arrows 0.38.

Both teams to score: 26%. Over 2.5 goals: 32%, under 2.5: 68%.

Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,154 settled matches.

One-sided: Orlando Pirates are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Orlando Pirates's rating is built from 39 South African Premier Soccer League matches and Golden Arrows's from 39, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 546 matches.

Key facts

  • Orlando Pirates are 2nd on 25 points from 9 games; Golden Arrows are 10th on 8 points from 9 games — Premier Soccer League.
  • Orlando Pirates are unbeaten in their last 5 games (5 won), most recently a 2-1 win at home to Kaizer Chiefs.
  • Golden Arrows have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Amazulu.
  • Last 6 meetings: Orlando Pirates 6 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 7 April 2026, ended Orlando Pirates 5–0 Golden Arrows.

More South African Premier Soccer League predictions

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Orlando Pirates vs Golden Arrows

26%
Both teams to score
32%
Over 2.5 goals
68%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Orlando Pirates win Draw Golden Arrows win
  1. 1–021%
  2. 2–018%
  3. 0–014%
  4. 3–010%
  5. 1–19%
  6. 2–17%
  7. 0–15%

Scores read Orlando Pirates first; the other scorelines share the remaining 17%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Orlando Pirates at 63%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Orlando Pirates vs Golden Arrows

Orlando Pirates

Premier Soccer League

  • W2-1Kaizer Chiefs31 October 2026
  • W3-0TS Galaxy13 October 2026
  • W2-0away to Marumo Gallants20 September 2026
  • W2-0Durban City17 September 2026
  • W4-0away to Kruger United1 September 2026

Golden Arrows

Premier Soccer League

  • L0-1away to Amazulu31 October 2026
  • L0-1Milford FC17 October 2026
  • D0-0Kaizer Chiefs20 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Siwelele13 September 2026
  • L1-2Mamelodi Sundowns6 September 2026

What these results say

  • Orlando Pirates won every one of these 5 matches.
  • Orlando Pirates scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Orlando Pirates kept a clean sheet in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Golden Arrows did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • Golden Arrows conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Golden Arrows had two goals or fewer.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Premier Soccer League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Orlando Pirates9810212+1925
10Golden Arrows915335-28

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Orlando Pirates

Chance to finish top of the regular season · 74% today

Win 77%
Draw 69%
Defeat 64%

Golden Arrows

Chance to finish in the bottom three · 14% today

Win 9%
Draw 12%
Defeat 16%

From our Premier Soccer League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Orlando Pirates vs Golden Arrows

  • 7 April 2026Orlando Pirates 5–0 Golden ArrowsPremier Soccer League
  • 5 November 2025Golden Arrows 1–3 Orlando PiratesPremier Soccer League
  • 13 May 2025Orlando Pirates 3–0 Golden ArrowsPremier Soccer League
  • 6 May 2025Golden Arrows 1–2 Orlando PiratesPremier Soccer League
  • 6 April 2024Orlando Pirates 7–1 Golden ArrowsPremier Soccer League
  • 17 December 2023Golden Arrows 1–2 Orlando PiratesPremier Soccer League

Leading scorers: Orlando Pirates and Golden Arrows

Orlando Pirates

GoalsAssists

  • T. Moremi50
  • B. Radiopane31
  • Y. Mbuthuma30

Golden Arrows

No player in Premier Soccer League's leading scorers — 3 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Orlando Pirates a 74.1% chance of the title and Golden Arrows 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Orlando Pirates Golden Arrows
1.01 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.44
0.92 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.32
1.61 Model expected goals (this match) 0.38

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Orlando Pirates the highest probability at 63%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Orlando Pirates against 0.38 for Golden Arrows. Orlando Pirates's attack/defence rating is 1.01/0.92 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.44/1.32 for Golden Arrows.

Orlando Pirates carry a model rating of 6.9 against 6.34 for Golden Arrows.

How the model reaches 63% for Orlando Pirates to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 35% for Orlando Pirates to win. Then home advantage adds 5 points, the level of the two sides takes away 3 points, Orlando Pirates's ratings add 14 points and Golden Arrows's ratings add 12 points, which lands on the published 63%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground35%
  2. Home advantage40%+5
  3. Both sides at this match's level37%−3
  4. Orlando Pirates's ratings51%+14
  5. Golden Arrows's ratings63%+12

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

Orlando PiratesGolden Arrows
9Matches9
8W 1D 0LRecord1W 5D 3L
21 2.3 per gameGoals scored3 0.3 per game
2 0.2 per gameGoals conceded5 0.6 per game
7 of 9Clean sheets5 of 9
0 of 9Failed to score6 of 9
1 of 1Penalties scored–
12 1.3 per gameYellow cards11 1.2 per game
4-2-3-1 9×Usual shape4-3-3 7×

Orlando Pirates at home · Golden Arrows away

5Played4
5W 0D 0LRecord0W 3D 1L
11–1Goals for – against1–2
4 of 5Clean sheets2 of 4

League matches only, Premier Soccer League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Premier Soccer League matches this season: Orlando Pirates 9, Golden Arrows 9.

Orlando Pirates scored 232545
Golden Arrows conceded 100031
Golden Arrows scored 000111
Orlando Pirates conceded 011000

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 4 matches, by difficulty

Orlando Pirates

  • vs Stellenbosch5 Dec · Premier Soccer Leaguewin 68%
  • at Richards Bay16 Dec · Premier Soccer Leaguewin 69%
  • vs Polokwane City19 Dec · Premier Soccer Leaguewin 68%
  • at Mamelodi Sundowns9 Jan · Premier Soccer Leaguewin 42%

Golden Arrows

  • vs Kruger United5 Dec · Premier Soccer Leaguewin 41%
  • at Polokwane City16 Dec · Premier Soccer Leaguewin 28%
  • at Sekhukhune United19 Dec · Premier Soccer Leaguewin 26%
  • vs Richards Bay9 Jan · Premier Soccer Leaguewin 47%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.