Kruger United
vs
Mamelodi Sundowns
Premier Soccer League prediction
Our model says: Kruger United 0–1 Mamelodi Sundowns
The model makes it 21% Kruger United, 25% draw, 54% Mamelodi Sundowns — fair odds of 4.76, 4.00 and 1.85.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Kruger United 0.98, Mamelodi Sundowns 1.90.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,154 settled matches.
One-sided: Mamelodi Sundowns are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Kruger United's rating is built from 9 South African Premier Soccer League matches and Mamelodi Sundowns's from 40, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 546 matches.
Key facts
- Kruger United are 9th on 10 points from 9 games; Mamelodi Sundowns are top on 26 points from 10 games — Premier Soccer League.
- Kruger United have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-1 win at home to Richards Bay.
- Mamelodi Sundowns are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 4-1 win at home to Durban City.
More South African Premier Soccer League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Kruger United vs Mamelodi Sundowns
Has the model earned this number?
Mamelodi Sundowns at 54%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Kruger United vs Mamelodi Sundowns
Kruger United
Premier Soccer League
- W3-1Richards Bay31 October 2026
- W1-0away to Chippa United17 October 2026
- L0-1Stellenbosch19 September 2026
- W1-0away to TS Galaxy13 September 2026
- L0-4Orlando Pirates1 September 2026
Mamelodi Sundowns
Premier Soccer League
- W4-1Durban City31 October 2026
- W4-1away to Richards Bay13 October 2026
- D1-1away to Chippa United12 September 2026
- W3-0Siwelele9 September 2026
- W2-1away to Golden Arrows6 September 2026
What these results say
- Mamelodi Sundowns went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Mamelodi Sundowns scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Mamelodi Sundowns won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premier Soccer League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Kruger United | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 10 |
| 1 | Mamelodi Sundowns | 10 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 27 | 9 | +18 | 26 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Kruger United
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 23% today
Mamelodi Sundowns
Chance to finish top of the regular season · 24% today
From our Premier Soccer League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Leading scorers: Kruger United and Mamelodi Sundowns
Kruger United
No player in Premier Soccer League's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
Mamelodi Sundowns
GoalsAssists
- I. Rayners40
- T. Matthews34
- B. León31
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Kruger United a 0% chance of the title and Mamelodi Sundowns 24%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Mamelodi Sundowns the highest probability at 54%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Kruger United against 1.90 for Mamelodi Sundowns. Kruger United's attack/defence rating is 0.53/1.92 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.04/1.53 for Mamelodi Sundowns.
How the model reaches 54% for Mamelodi Sundowns to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 34% for Mamelodi Sundowns to win. Then home advantage takes away 5 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, Kruger United's ratings add 11 points and Mamelodi Sundowns's ratings add 13 points, which lands on the published 54%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground34%
- Home advantage29%−5
- Both sides at this match's level30%+1
- Kruger United's ratings41%+11
- Mamelodi Sundowns's ratings54%+13
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Kruger United at home · Mamelodi Sundowns away
League matches only, Premier Soccer League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier Soccer League matches this season: Kruger United 9, Mamelodi Sundowns 10.
Mamelodi Sundowns score most often in the 76–90 minute window (10 goals); Kruger United have let in 3 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Kruger United
- at Golden Arrows5 Dec · Premier Soccer Leaguewin 24%
- vs Siwelele15 Dec · Premier Soccer Leaguewin 39%
- at Amazulu19 Dec · Premier Soccer Leaguewin 19%
- vs Sekhukhune United9 Jan · Premier Soccer Leaguewin 34%
Mamelodi Sundowns
- vs Polokwane City5 Dec · Premier Soccer Leaguewin 62%
- vs Sekhukhune United15 Dec · Premier Soccer Leaguewin 60%
- at Stellenbosch18 Dec · Premier Soccer Leaguewin 48%
- vs Orlando Pirates9 Jan · Premier Soccer Leaguewin 30%
- at Milford FC16 Jan · Premier Soccer Leaguewin 38%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.