15 August 2026, 16:00 UTC

Mariehamn vs SJK Finnish Premier League prediction & result

Mariehamn
Full time2 – 0

Final score: Mariehamn 2-0 SJK.

Before kick-off the model made it 21% Mariehamn, 27% draw, 52% SJK — fair odds of 4.76, 3.70 and 1.92.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

SJK at 52%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Mariehamn99%Draw1%SJK0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽R. Monteiroassist: A. Bergvik
18'
🔁A. Stroudout: M. Hyvonen
28'
🔁R. Monteiroout: A. Huttunen
33'
🔁A. Bergvikout: V. Widlund
46'
46'
🔁O. Vaistoout: K. Nwanege
46'
🔁A. Bostromout: M. Suso
⚽N. Nurmiassist: F. Gyamfi
48'
61'
🔁J. Strengout: E. Mastokangas
65'
Facundo Constantini
67'
🔁A. Wilsonout: Caio Araujo
Ludvig Richtnér
68'
77'
Gospel Chibueze Junior Onuoha
79'
🔁E. Onuohaout: L. Vesterbacka
🔁A. Larssonout: T. Jakobsen
86'

Line-ups

Mariehamn 4-2-3-1
  • 1K. LundG
  • 4L. RichtnerD
  • 2N. NurmiD
  • 15F. GyamfiD
  • 3A. SoiniemiD
  • 11J. SvedbergM
  • 8J. HeydenM
  • 22R. MonteiroM
  • 14A. BergvikM
  • 18A. StroudM
  • 7A. LarssonF
Substitutes
  • 32M. RiikonenG
  • 5T. KoivistoD
  • 24O. Pajunen
  • 64M. HyvonenM
  • 43L. AnderssonF
  • 16A. HuttunenM
  • 9W. NunezF
  • 23V. WidlundD
  • 19T. Jakobsen
Coach: Roberth Bjorknesjo
SJK 4-4-2
  • 1R. PaunioG
  • 6S. YussifD
  • 2F. CostantiniD
  • 5O. VaistoD
  • 14Murilo HenriqueM
  • 31E. OnuohaM
  • 8A. BostromM
  • 23A. WilsonM
  • 15E. MommoD
  • 9J. StrengF
  • 7KelwinF
Substitutes
  • 35J. ViitalaG
  • 26J. MoisioD
  • 28K. NwanegeD
  • 19E. MastokangasM
  • 22L. VesterbackaM
  • 42Caio Araujo
  • 47M. SusoM
  • 51A. CisseF
  • 43S. Bagayogo
Coach: Jarkko Wiss

Form going into Mariehamn vs SJK

Mariehamn

All competitions we cover

  • L0-2away to Ilves9 August 2026

SJK

All competitions we cover

  • D2-2Gnistan7 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Mariehamn vs SJK

  • 10 April 2026SJK 3–0 MariehamnFinnish Premier League
  • 28 June 2025SJK 4–1 MariehamnFinnish Premier League
  • 19 April 2025Mariehamn 1–2 SJKFinnish Premier League
  • 21 July 2024Mariehamn 0–4 SJKFinnish Premier League
  • 31 May 2024SJK 0–2 MariehamnFinnish Premier League

The result against the call

Mariehamn beat SJK 2–0. The model had leaned towards a win for SJK at 52% and given a win for Mariehamn 21%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goals: R. Monteiro 18' for Mariehamn, N. Nurmi 48' for Mariehamn.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.