Gwangju FC
vs
Pohang Steelers
K League 1 prediction
The model makes it 53% Gwangju FC, 26% draw, 21% Pohang Steelers — fair odds of 1.89, 3.85 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (13%).
Expected goals: Gwangju FC 1.59, Pohang Steelers 0.88.
Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 45%, under 2.5: 55%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Gwangju FC
- D0-0away to Bucheon FC 19958 August 2026
- L0-2away to Daejeon Citizen2 August 2026
- L1-2Jeju United FC26 July 2026
- D1-1Gimcheon Sangmu FC22 July 2026
- D1-1away to FC Anyang19 July 2026
Pohang Steelers
- L0-2Ulsan Hyundai FC8 August 2026
- L0-1Gimcheon Sangmu FC1 August 2026
- L0-2Jeonbuk Motors25 July 2026
- L1-3away to FC Seoul22 July 2026
- L1-2away to Jeju United FC18 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
K League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Gwangju FC | 22 | 1 | 8 | 13 | 11 | 47 | -36 | 11 |
| 8 | Pohang Steelers | 22 | 8 | 4 | 10 | 20 | 24 | -4 | 28 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Gwangju FC
No league goals recorded yet.
Pohang Steelers
- Lee Ho-Jae4 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Gwangju FC carry a model rating of 6.22 against 6.03 for Pohang Steelers. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Gwangju FC D-D-L-L-D; Pohang Steelers L-L-L-L-L.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.59 goals for Gwangju FC and 0.88 for Pohang Steelers. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Gwangju FC rate 0.38 in attack and 1.47 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Pohang Steelers rate 0.43 and 2.21.
That points to 45% for over two and a half goals and 47% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-0 (13%), 1-1 (12%), 2-0 (11%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Pohang Steelers, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Gwangju FC the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Gwangju FC against 0.88 for Pohang Steelers. Gwangju FC's attack/defence rating is 0.38/1.47 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.43/2.21 for Pohang Steelers.