16 August 2026, 13:00 UTC

HJK Helsinki vs FF Jaro Finnish Premier League prediction & result

Bolt Arena, Helsinki
Full time3 – 0

Final score: HJK Helsinki 3-0 FF Jaro.

Before kick-off the model made it 32% HJK Helsinki, 27% draw, 41% FF Jaro — fair odds of 3.13, 3.70 and 2.44.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

FF Jaro at 41%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

HJK Helsinki99%Draw1%FF Jaro0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽A. Cicaleassist: M. Ylitolva
5'
⚽M. Borchersassist: M. Kirilov
9'
48'
Jesper Svenungsen Skau
🔁M. Gueyeout: J. Kallinen
60'
62'
🔁R. Vikstromout: V. Vuorinen
63'
🔁J. Myrevikout: A. Bjonback
⚽M. Kirilovassist: T. Pukki
68'
72'
Oliver Kass Kawo
🔁L. Montanoout: K. Simojoki
72'
🔁P. Mentuout: A. Ring
72'
🔁M. Borchersout: S. Haarala
72'
72'
🔁A. Sabriyeout: J. Vikstrom
78'
Adam Vidjeskog
🔁T. Pukkiout: L. Lappalainen
79'
81'
🔁F. O. Nessout: T. Soderstrom
81'
🔁O. Kass Kawoout: V. Lofs

Line-ups

HJK Helsinki 4-4-2
  • 44M. MarkovicG
  • 28M. YlitolvaD
  • 5A. NalloD
  • 3T. CissokhoD
  • 14L. MontanoD
  • 17M. KirilovM
  • 32M. Gueye
  • 8P. MentuM
  • 7A. CicaleM
  • 9M. BorchersF
  • 20T. PukkiF
Substitutes
  • 1J. OstG
  • 12M. HaapanenG
  • 31M. BogicevicD
  • 13K. SimojokiD
  • 4A. RingM
  • 15J. KallinenM
  • 26L. LappalainenM
  • 29S. HaaralaF
Coach: Joonas Rantanen
FF Jaro 4-4-2
  • 1S. VitsG
  • 21J. MyrevikD
  • 7J. SkauD
  • 4M. OgungbaroD
  • 19F. O. NessD
  • 15R. VikstromF
  • 8O. Kass KawoM
  • 16A. VidjeskogM
  • 77A. SabriyeM
  • 22K. HardenM
  • 11H. SjogrellM
Substitutes
  • 31A. FinellG
  • 5A. BjonbackD
  • 20T. SoderstromD
  • 24V. LofsM
  • 17J. LaaksoM
  • 91V. VuorinenM
  • 18E. HolmangF
  • 27J. VikstromF
Coach: Jens Karlsson

Form going into HJK Helsinki vs FF Jaro

HJK Helsinki

All competitions we cover

  • L0-2away to Motherwell13 August 2026
  • W1-0away to AC Oulu9 August 2026
  • D1-1Motherwell6 August 2026
  • W3-0away to Coleraine FC30 July 2026
  • W5-0Coleraine FC23 July 2026

FF Jaro

All competitions we cover

  • L1-3VPS8 August 2026

What these results say

  • HJK Helsinki scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Head-to-head: HJK Helsinki vs FF Jaro

  • 13 June 2026FF Jaro 2–5 HJK HelsinkiFinnish Premier League
  • 2 July 2025HJK Helsinki 2–3 FF JaroFinnish Premier League
  • 11 May 2025FF Jaro 0–3 HJK HelsinkiFinnish Premier League
  • 13 September 2015FF Jaro 1–1 HJK HelsinkiFinnish Premier League
  • 22 June 2015HJK Helsinki 4–0 FF JaroFinnish Premier League

Leading scorers: HJK Helsinki and FF Jaro

HJK Helsinki

GoalsAssists

  • M. Borchers173
  • T. Pukki46
  • S. Haarala42

FF Jaro

No leading scorers listed yet.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

HJK Helsinki beat FF Jaro 3–0. The model had leaned towards a win for FF Jaro at 41% and given a win for HJK Helsinki 32%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: A. Cicale 5' for HJK Helsinki, M. Borchers 9' for HJK Helsinki, M. Kirilov 68' for HJK Helsinki.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.