9 September 2026, 15:55 UTC

Al Kholood vs Al Shabab Pro League prediction & result

Al-Hazem Club Stadium, Ar Rass
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Al Kholood 2-1 Al Shabab.

Before kick-off the model made it 47% Al Kholood, 27% draw, 26% Al Shabab — fair odds of 2.13, 3.70 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Al Kholood at 47% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Al Kholood97%Draw3%Al Shabab0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

6'
⚽R. B. Martinez Tobinsonassist: J. Brownhill
Mansour Camara
22'
22'
Daniel Podence
28'
Dhari Al-Enezi
⚽I. Kortajarenaassist: J. Domingues
30'
Seydouba Cisse
41'
46'
🔁D. Podenceout: A. Matuq
🔁L. Essombaout: M. Sawan
64'
Iker Kortajarena
73'
78'
🔁D. Al Anaziout: A. Al Bulayhi
78'
🔁H. Al Hammamiout: M. Khadhari
⚽A. Al Dawsariassist: M. Sawan
87'
Mohammed Al-Rashidi
90+2'
90+5'
Tin Jedvaj
🔁C. da Costaout: S. Al Shehri
90+4'
🔁A. Al Dawsariout: M. Al Rashidi
90'

Match stats — Al Kholood vs Al Shabab

50%Possession50%
14Shots8
5On target3
5Corners5
2.19xG0.62

Goals against chances

Al Kholood2 from 2.19 xGabout what the chances were worth
Al Shabab1 from 0.62 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Al Kholood 4-2-3-1
  • 1A. M. Yousef H.G
  • 15R. SolanD
  • 5E. UtkusD
  • 25M. CamaraD
  • 38S. PinasD
  • 39A. Al DawsariM
  • 8S. CisseM
  • 77L. EssombaM
  • 10I. KortajarenaM
  • 11C. da CostaM
  • 22J. DominguesF
Substitutes
  • 30M. Al ShammariG
  • 23Y. MadaniD
  • 7S. Al ShehriD
  • 47A. Al ObaidD
  • 24O. Abdulghani
  • 67M. Al Rashidi
  • 70M. SawanM
  • 26Y. Al ZubaidiF
  • 27A. Al AjianF
Coach: Des Buckingham
Al Shabab 4-2-3-1
  • 1M. DiawG
  • 17M. Al ThaniD
  • 4T. JedvajD
  • 3M. T. BarryD
  • 21D. Al AnaziD
  • 8J. BrownhillM
  • 29Y. AdliM
  • 22H. Al HammamiM
  • 11D. PodenceM
  • 10Y. CarrascoM
  • 9R. B. Martinez TobinsonF
Substitutes
  • 33M. Al MahasnehG
  • 2M. Al ShwirekhD
  • 55A. Al BulayhiD
  • 5A. MakkiD
  • 40A. Al AsmariM
  • 74A. Al HadhoodF
  • 6A. Al NashriM
  • 97M. KhadhariF
  • 37A. Matuq
Coach: Thomas Letsch

Form going into Al Kholood vs Al Shabab

Al Kholood

All competitions we cover

  • D2-2away to Al-Fayha3 September 2026
  • W3-1Al-Ahli Jeddah29 August 2026

Al Shabab

All competitions we cover

  • L0-2Al-Hilal4 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Al-Hazm30 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Pro League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10Al Kholood113351726-912
12Al Shabab102531414011

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Leading scorers: Al Kholood and Al Shabab

Al Kholood

GoalsAssists

  • J. Domingues63
  • Iker Kortajarena41

Al Shabab

No player in Pro League's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Al Kholood beat Al Shabab 2–1. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Al Kholood at 47%. The goals: R. B. Martinez Tobinson 6' for Al Shabab, I. Kortajarena 30' for Al Kholood, A. Al Dawsari 87' for Al Kholood. On expected goals it finished 2.19–0.62.

How the call on Al Kholood v Al Shabab has moved

First published on 1 Sep at 44% / 28% / 28% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 7 updates, it read 47% / 27% / 26%: the biggest move is Al Kholood's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Al Kholood win47%▲ +3
  2. Draw27%▼ −1
  3. Al Shabab win26%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.