Oviedo vs Sporting Gijon Segunda División prediction & result
Final score: Oviedo 2-0 Sporting Gijon.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% Oviedo, 30% draw, 28% Sporting Gijon — fair odds of 2.38, 3.33 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Segunda División predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Oviedo at 42% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Oviedo vs Sporting Gijon
Line-ups
- 13Aarón EscandellG
- 21David JiménezD
- 12Dani CalvoD
- 23Carlos DomínguezD
- 15S. RodriguezD
- 5Y. DidiM
- 6Dani VillahermosaM
- 20Pablo SáenzM
- 8Mikel GotiM
- 11Jacobo GonzálezM
- 9Chris RamosF
- 4David CostasD
- 16Aritz AldasoroM
- 2AisarM
- 30Marco EstebanD
- 18V. MingoF
- 28D. MenendezM
- 32Enzo PerezF
- 10Alberto ReinaM
- 1Miguel NarváezG
- 1Rubén YáñezG
- 2Guille RosasD
- 24Aimar DuñabeitiaD
- 15Pablo VázquezD
- 44Andrés CuencaD
- 10César GelabertM
- 8M. RodriguezM
- 14Álex CorrederaM
- 20N. IosifovM
- 19J. OteroF
- 17Antonio CasasF
- 13AranaG
- 35C. FerreresM
- 3Pablo GarcíaD
- 4E. GularteD
- 5Diego SánchezD
- 23Jorge SáenzD
- 16A. SarcoF
- 27Enol PrendesF
- 26Iker MartínezD
Form going into Oviedo vs Sporting Gijon
Oviedo
All competitions we cover
- L1-3away to Sabadell20 September 2026
- W3-0away to Valladolid13 September 2026
- D0-0Burgos6 September 2026
- W1-0away to Albacete29 August 2026
- L0-1Leganes22 August 2026
Sporting Gijon
All competitions we cover
- W3-1away to FC Andorra19 September 2026
- L0-1Eldense13 September 2026
- L0-2Girona5 September 2026
- W1-0away to Tenerife28 August 2026
- W1-0Burgos23 August 2026
What these results say
- 4 of these 5 matches for Sporting Gijon had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Oviedo | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 12 | +3 | 18 |
| 8 | Sporting Gijon | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Oviedo vs Sporting Gijon
- 11 January 2025Oviedo 1–1 Sporting GijonSegunda División
- 7 September 2024Sporting Gijon 3–1 OviedoSegunda División
- 10 February 2024Sporting Gijon 1–0 OviedoSegunda División
- 9 September 2023Oviedo 0–0 Sporting GijonSegunda División
- 13 May 2023Sporting Gijon 1–1 OviedoSegunda División
Leading scorers: Oviedo and Sporting Gijon
Oviedo
GoalsAssists
- Carlos Domínguez40
Sporting Gijon
No player in Segunda División's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Oviedo beat Sporting Gijon 2–0. The model had made a win for Oviedo its most likely outcome, at 42%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Chris Ramos 8' for Oviedo, Enzo Pérez Miranda 82' for Oviedo. Sent off: César Gelabert (Sporting Gijon) 76'.
How the call on Oviedo v Sporting Gijon has moved
First published on 13 Sep at 48% / 28% / 24% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 9 updates, it read 42% / 30% / 28%: the biggest move is Oviedo's chance of winning, down 6 points.
- Oviedo win42%▼ −6
- Draw30%▲ +2
- Sporting Gijon win28%▲ +4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.