Eibar vs Las Palmas Segunda División prediction & result
Final score: Eibar 3-2 Las Palmas.
Before kick-off the model made it 46% Eibar, 29% draw, 25% Las Palmas — fair odds of 2.17, 3.45 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Segunda División predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Eibar at 46% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Eibar vs Las Palmas
Line-ups
- 13Jon MikelG
- 22Álvaro RodríguezD
- 4Unai ElgezabalD
- 23Anaitz ArbillaD
- 24Juan BernatD
- 30Aleix GarridoM
- 8Ander MadariagaM
- 7Malcom AduM
- 11Jon MagunazelaiaM
- 10Jon GuruzetaM
- 20Javi MartónF
- 15Jair AmadorD
- 18M. AranaD
- 9Jon BautistaF
- 17PejiñoF
- 2Sergio CuberoD
- 3Imanol García de AlbénizD
- 21Iván GilM
- 27Elijah Gift Izobodo JohnF
- 1Luis LópezG
- 13José CaroG
- 25Valentín PezzolesiD
- 4Álex SuárezD
- 21G. BonfantiD
- 12E. LoiodiceD
- 11T. MiyashiroM
- 20Kirian RodríguezM
- 6Iñaki González ZambranoM
- 24Iván JaimeM
- 10JeséF
- 14Manu FusterF
- 26A. BassingaM
- 7Jefté BetancorF
- 30I. MedinaF
- 3N. OpokuD
- 19Sandro RamírezF
- 23A. RodriguezD
- 29Elías RomeroF
- 42Rachid Saiah BouchaibaD
- 35Adrián SuárezG
Form going into Eibar vs Las Palmas
Eibar
All competitions we cover
- W2-1away to Eldense19 September 2026
- W4-0away to Celta de Vigo II14 September 2026
- W3-0Granada CF6 September 2026
- W1-0away to FC Andorra30 August 2026
- W1-0Valladolid23 August 2026
Las Palmas
All competitions we cover
- L1-2Burgos20 September 2026
- W1-0away to Cadiz12 September 2026
- D0-0Leganes4 September 2026
- L2-5away to Girona29 August 2026
- W2-0away to AD Ceuta FC22 August 2026
What these results say
- Eibar won every one of these 5 matches.
- Eibar scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Eibar kept a clean sheet in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Las Palmas scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Eibar | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 20 | 13 | +7 | 22 |
| 14 | Las Palmas | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 14 | 19 | -5 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Eibar vs Las Palmas
- 29 March 2026Eibar 3–1 Las PalmasSegunda División
- 19 October 2025Las Palmas 3–1 EibarSegunda División
- 8 May 2023Eibar 0–1 Las PalmasSegunda División
- 6 November 2022Las Palmas 1–1 EibarSegunda División
- 15 April 2022Eibar 2–2 Las PalmasSegunda División
Leading scorers: Eibar and Las Palmas
Eibar
GoalsAssists
- Iván Gil41
- Jon Guruzeta32
Las Palmas
No player in Segunda División's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Eibar beat Las Palmas 3–2. The model had made a win for Eibar its most likely outcome, at 46%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Ander Madariaga Susaeta 6' for Eibar, Alvaro Rodriguez 9' for Eibar, Valentín Alejandro Pezzolesi 24' for Las Palmas, Javier Martón Ansó 62' for Eibar, Jefte Betancor Sanchez 85' for Las Palmas. Sent off: Iñaki González Zambrano (Las Palmas) 90+4'.
How the call on Eibar v Las Palmas has moved
First published on 13 Sep at 43% / 29% / 28% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 7 updates, it read 46% / 29% / 25%: the biggest move is Eibar's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- Eibar win46%▲ +3
- Draw29%=
- Las Palmas win25%▼ −3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.