Malaga
vs
Levante
La Liga prediction
The model makes it 39% Malaga, 29% draw, 32% Levante — fair odds of 2.56, 3.45 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Malaga 1.26, Levante 1.11.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 42%, under 2.5: 58%.
Model confidence: Low.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Malaga
- L0-2away to Atletico Madrid19 August 2026
Levante
- L0-3away to Espanyol16 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Malaga | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 19 | Levante | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Malaga vs Levante
- 8 February 2025Malaga 1–1 LevanteSegunda División
- 27 November 2024Levante 4–2 MalagaSegunda División
- 17 March 2023Malaga 0–0 LevanteSegunda División
- 4 December 2022Levante 1–0 MalagaSegunda División
- 19 April 2018Levante 1–0 MalagaLa Liga
- 1 December 2017Malaga 0–0 LevanteLa Liga
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Malaga carry a model rating of 6.91 against 6.89 for Levante. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Malaga L; Levante L.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.26 goals for Malaga and 1.11 for Levante. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Malaga rate 0.56 in attack and 0.64 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Levante rate 1.24 and 1.19.
That points to 42% for over two and a half goals and 49% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (11%), 0-0 (10%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 542 correct results out of 1143 settled predictions (47%), with 104 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Malaga the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Malaga against 1.11 for Levante. Malaga's attack/defence rating is 0.56/0.64 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.24/1.19 for Levante.