Ironi Kiryat Shmona
vs
Maccabi Haifa
Ligat Ha'al prediction & result
Final score: Ironi Kiryat Shmona 0-4 Maccabi Haifa.
Before kick-off the model made it 24% Ironi Kiryat Shmona, 24% draw, 52% Maccabi Haifa — fair odds of 4.17, 4.17 and 1.92. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (9%).
Expected goals: Ironi Kiryat Shmona 1.39, Maccabi Haifa 2.65.
Both teams to score: 70%. Over 2.5 goals: 77%, under 2.5: 23%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
Model insights: Ironi Kiryat Shmona vs Maccabi Haifa
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Maccabi Haifa at 52% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 630 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Ironi Kiryat Shmona vs Maccabi Haifa
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
- L2-4away to Hapoel Jerusalem5 September 2026
- W2-0Ironi Tiberias29 August 2026
- L1-2away to Maccabi Petah Tikva22 August 2026
Maccabi Haifa
- W2-1Hapoel Petah Tikva5 September 2026
- L1-3away to Maccabi Tel Aviv31 August 2026
- W2-1Hapoel Ramat Gan22 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligat Ha'al table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Ironi Kiryat Shmona | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 3 |
| 2 | Maccabi Haifa | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Ironi Kiryat Shmona and Maccabi Haifa
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
- N. Gabay1 goals
Maccabi Haifa
- Bruninho3 goals1 assists
- A. Novaković1 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
The two sides
Ironi Kiryat Shmona carry a model rating of 6.14 against 6.6 for Maccabi Haifa. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.39 goals for Ironi Kiryat Shmona and 2.65 for Maccabi Haifa. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Ironi Kiryat Shmona rate 0.58 in attack and 2.50 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Maccabi Haifa rate 0.88 and 1.47.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Maccabi Haifa the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Ironi Kiryat Shmona against 2.65 for Maccabi Haifa. Ironi Kiryat Shmona's attack/defence rating is 0.58/2.5 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.88/1.47 for Maccabi Haifa.