Hapoel Haifa
vs
Bnei Sakhnin
Ligat Ha'al prediction & result
Final score: Hapoel Haifa 3-1 Bnei Sakhnin.
Before kick-off the model made it 50% Hapoel Haifa, 28% draw, 22% Bnei Sakhnin — fair odds of 2.00, 3.57 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (13%).
Expected goals: Hapoel Haifa 1.77, Bnei Sakhnin 0.80.
Both teams to score: 46%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
Model insights: Hapoel Haifa vs Bnei Sakhnin
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Hapoel Haifa at 50% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 630 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Hapoel Haifa vs Bnei Sakhnin
Hapoel Haifa
- D1-1away to Maccabi Netanya7 September 2026
- D2-2away to Hapoel Beer Sheva2 September 2026
- D0-0Hapoel Tel Aviv30 August 2026
Bnei Sakhnin
- L0-1Beitar Jerusalem7 September 2026
- L1-2Maccabi Petah Tikva29 August 2026
- D0-0away to Maccabi Netanya24 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligat Ha'al table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Hapoel Haifa | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 6 |
| 13 | Bnei Sakhnin | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Hapoel Haifa and Bnei Sakhnin
Hapoel Haifa
- A. Turgeman2 goals
Bnei Sakhnin
No player in Ligat Ha'al's leading scorers — 2 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
The two sides
Hapoel Haifa carry a model rating of 6.31 against 6.06 for Bnei Sakhnin. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.77 goals for Hapoel Haifa and 0.80 for Bnei Sakhnin. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Hapoel Haifa rate 0.54 in attack and 1.61 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Bnei Sakhnin rate 0.41 and 2.01.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Hapoel Haifa the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Hapoel Haifa against 0.8 for Bnei Sakhnin. Hapoel Haifa's attack/defence rating is 0.54/1.61 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.41/2.01 for Bnei Sakhnin.